Martin Cooper, known as the inventor of the cellphone as a Motorola technologist, is a skeptic of wireless industry arguments about a pending spectrum crisis. The world “is just at the beginning of the cellular revolution,” he said on a Cooley webinar Thursday, interviewed by former FCC Commissioner Robert McDowell. The standard story is that spectrum “is like beachfront property -- when you use it all up, there isn’t anymore,” Cooper said. “How can that be true?” When Guglielmo Marconi demonstrated the first radio, he used all the available spectrum for most of the world, Cooper said. Fifty years later “we had a million times more capacity, and believe it or not, another 50 years” later “and we did another million times,” he said: “Somehow or other, technology has stayed ahead of the game forever, and we have never had a scarcity of spectrum.” The technology already exists to make much more efficient use of spectrum, he said. The challenge “is to change our perception of spectrum, to get people to understand that we’ve got to … share the spectrum,” he said. McDowell noted Cooper developed what some call “Cooper’s Law,” that spectral efficiency doubles every 30 months and becomes exponential over time. Cooper’s wife, Arlene Harris, who co-founded wireless technology company Dyna with him in 1986, said on the webinar the expiration of the FCC’s auction authority in March could be a good thing for the wireless industry. “Good for Congress -- let’s starve the carriers,” Harris said. The carriers will then have to put pressure on their suppliers to develop technological solutions to capacity issues, she said. The technology Cooper developed in the 1990s “would have improved [network] capacity a ton, and yet the commission goes off and sells more spectrum -- the carriers had no reason to implement that technology,” Harris said: “They were buying spectrum and parking it.” Cooper envisions a world without exclusive licenses for spectrum. Allocations would be done “on the fly,” he said. Someone who wants to make a call would ask for a channel “and that channel is created instantaneously over the optimum frequency, the optimum amount of power,” he said: “We reconfigure as things change. That is the way systems should work. We are a long way away from that today, but that is how we’re going to get another million times capacity in spectrum capacity, and it’s all doable” with the right processing, smart antennas and other technology. The government is going to have to convince carriers to share spectrum, which won’t be easy, he said. “Carriers today think they own the spectrum -- they don’t own the spectrum, they have a license to use it,” Cooper said.
Wireless Spectrum Auctions
The FCC manages and licenses the electromagnetic spectrum used by wireless, broadcast, satellite and other telecommunications services for government and commercial users. This activity includes organizing specific telecommunications modes to only use specific frequencies and maintaining the licensing systems for each frequency such that communications services and devices using different bands receive as little interference as possible.
What are spectrum auctions?
The FCC will periodically hold auctions of unused or newly available spectrum frequencies, in which potential licensees can bid to acquire the rights to use a specific frequency for a specific purpose. As an example, over the last few years the U.S. government has conducted periodic auctions of different GHz bands to support the growth of 5G services.
The FCC appears unlikely to grant T-Mobile special temporary authority to launch service in the markets where it won licenses in last year’s 2.5 GHz auction, which ended almost a year ago. The agency declined to award the licenses, or grant a STA, after its auction authority expired earlier this year (see 2304260058).
The U.S. Supreme Court denied Northstar Wireless' cert petition on the FCC's denying designated entity AWS-3 auction credits to Northstar and another Dish Network (see 2301230007), per a notice Friday in docket 22-672. The court said Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson didn't take part in the consideration or decision. The cert petition denial raises the prospects of a re-auction of spectrum soon, New Street Research's Blair Levin wrote in an investors' note Friday. The FCC doesn't have auction authority now, but that probably will be restored in 2023's second half, he said. Dish already paid $515 million and would be on the hook for any shortfall in a re-auction of the licenses, said Levin, though he deems such a shortfall unlikely.
North America is leading the world in the uptake of 5G with 41% of subscribers signed up for the new generation of wireless at the end of last year, according to the Ericsson Mobility Report, released Wednesday. Ericsson projected a 25% compound annual growth rate in mobile network data traffic through 2028. “Managing this growth while improving the mobile user experience requires continued network evolution,” the report said: “Notably, 5G mid-band build-out is proving to be more energy-efficient and cost-effective compared to the expansion of 4G networks.” 5G subscriptions are increasing in every region of the world and forecast to reach 1.5 billion by the end of 2023. Some 240 commercial 5G networks have been launched so far, Ericsson found. India is having the fastest growth anywhere. Following the launch of 5G in October, “the 5G market is witnessing huge network deployments under its Digital India initiative,” the report said: India reached 10 million 5G subscriptions by the end of 2022 and 5G is projected to account for about 57% of mobile subscriptions there by the end of 2028. Paroma Sanyal, co-leader of the Telecom, Media and Internet practice at the Brattle Group, said Wednesday new numbers from Ericsson show Brattle potentially underestimated growth in an April report commissioned by CTIA (see 2304170009). That report said without new spectrum bands allocated for licensed use, the U.S. could face a 400 MHz deficit by 2027 and 1,400 MHz by 2032. “We thought a 23% CAGR was quite high, but now they’re projecting even higher,” said Sanyal, former chief economist at the FCC Wireless Bureau, during a Georgetown Center for Business and Public Policy webcast. She said what the data flow will look like remains unclear. “We have seen so much fixed wireless deployment under 5G, so it’s not just the mobile network,” she said. There will probably be a lot more “data hungry” apps in use, she said. Improved spectral efficiency won’t be enough to keep up with projected data demand, she said, adding that while people say you can put in more towers, “there’s a physical limit to how many towers you can put in, how spectrum can be reused because of interference issues. So there’s always physical limit to what else you can do.” At least 64% of the projected demand needs to be satisfied by increased spectrum availability, she said. Sanyal predicted that once FCC auction authority is restored the lower 3 GHz band will be the next target for full-power licensed use.
House Communications Subcommittee members made the future of the FCC’s affordable connectivity program a major focus of its Wednesday commission oversight hearing, as expected (see 2306200075), but the panel didn’t result in a clear sense of whether Commerce Committee GOP leaders will back additional funding for the initiative. Subpanel Chairman Bob Latta, R-Ohio, and others haven’t committed themselves as either for or against further ACP funding (see 2305100073). Democrats strongly defended the program and urged its extension.
Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., told us he doesn’t plan to seek amendments to the Senate Armed Services Committee’s version of the FY 2024 National Defense Authorization Act involving his push to delay a deal on a spectrum legislative package until after DOD completes a study of its systems on the 3.1-3.45 GHz band (see 2305170037). The 175-member House-side Republican Study Committee, meanwhile, backed restoring the FCC’s lapsed spectrum auction authority for an indeterminate amount of time, in its FY24 budget proposal.
Fixed wireless access is accelerating and shows no signs of slowing down, experts said during a Global Mobile Suppliers Association (GSA) FWA Forum webinar Wednesday. GSA identified announced FWA service offers using LTE or 5G from 535 operators in 186 countries and territories and launched service from 455 operators in 173, per a new report.
NTIA heard a variety of comments, positive and negative, on the viability of the citizens broadband radio service as a model for future spectrum sharing. Comments, posted by the agency Tuesday, were due May 31 on an NTIA report on dynamic sharing and the three-tier sharing model offered by CBRS (see 2305010063). The report was by the agency’s Colorado lab, the Institute for Telecommunication Sciences (ITS).
Telecom-focused congressional leaders told us they’re sticking for now with a potential spectrum legislative package that would allocate some future auction proceeds to the FCC’s Secure and Trusted Communications Networks Reimbursement Program as the best option for fixing the initiative’s $3.08 billion shortfall. Talks on the package have yielded limited progress since January amid resistance from Senate Commerce Committee ranking member Ted Cruz, R-Texas, to major portions of a previous version of the measure lawmakers failed in December to attach to the FY 2023 appropriations omnibus (see 2212190069).
FCC commissioners approved an NPRM 4-0 Thursday seeking comment on potential sharing in the 42 GHz band. Industry officials disagree how much interest there will be in using the band on a shared basis (see 2305300055). But all commissioners welcomed the NPRM.