Russia's Attack on Ukraine Could Help Bogdan-Martin's Campaign for Top Spot at ITU

Some European nations are seeking to exclude Russia from participating in the regional organization for Europe, the European Conference of Postal and Telecommunications Administrations, as it prepares for the next World Radicommunication Conference, industry experts said. Russia has been largely left out of the ITU World Telecommunication Standardization Assembly (WTSA), which opened this week in Geneva.

At an opening session of WTSA Tuesday, Erica Barks-Ruggles, the U.S. delegation's head, wore the blue and yellow of Ukraine and sharply criticized Russia. “Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine is a clear violation of the UN Charter,” the U.S. Mission in Geneva said on Twitter: “How can we trust anything Russia will agree to in the WTSA when it flagrantly disregards [international] law.”

Ismailov’s problems were brought home at the Mobile World Congress this week in Barcelona, experts said. Bogdan-Martin was seen with FCC Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel and had what appeared to be many meetings at the conference. Ismailov wasn’t in Barcelona, though he participated virtually on a panel.

Bogdan-Martin has spent decades at the ITU. In 2018, she was elected director of the ITU Telecom Development Bureau.

“Doreen was a rock star here,” Wiley’s David Gross, a former State Department official, told us from Barcelona. “She had a large number of meetings. To say she was well received understates it in terms of not only industry, but there were a lot of ministers and regulators here. … She hit it out of the park with every single one. The buzz was very positive about her and her campaign.” Ismailov was supposed to be at the MWC but was unable to attend, Gross said. “He had a video thing, but nobody was talking about what he said, or anything of that nature,” he said.

“Regardless of what’s happening in geopolitics and the world, the United States has to continue to work and advocate and seek every vote to make sure they have a successful election in September,” said Fiona Alexander, former NTIA associate administrator-international affairs who helped lead Bogdan-Martin’s last campaign at the ITU.

The election will be decided at the ITU Plenipotentiary Conference, starting Sept. 26, where each delegation head will cast a secret, paper ballot in a closed-door meeting. “This is only March,” Alexander said. “A lot can happen in seven months.”

"Historically at the ITU, Russia has been able to count on its client states as reliable votes” and the “tiniest of countries have the same voting power as more populous countries,” said Cooley’s Robert McDowell, who represented the U.S. at the WRC while an FCC commissioner. “The question will be whether Russia's usual client states vote for the Russian candidate or try to distance themselves from the atrocities being committed by Russia against Ukraine, and his candidacy dissolves,” he said: “We have months to go before this election … so expect more twists and turns in this story.”

Others see Bogdan-Martin as the clear front-runner now. "As even figure skaters are being shunned, my guess is that the candidacy of the Russian is dead in the water," emailed Thomas Weiss, City University of New York Bunche Institute for International Studies director emeritus.

Ismailov "now has *zero* chance of getting elected. [Russia] is a pariah state," emailed Tony Rutkowski, former counselor to two secretaries-general and a former chief of the Relations Between Members Division. He said Russia has never participated significantly in the various ITU bodies in the past except on occasion to serve perceived political interests. "It gets away with the behavior because it has been a major Member contributor of funds combined with institutional arrangements that date back to the post WW-II creation of the current ITU institutional arrangements," he said. "After the Ukraine attack and invasion, its representatives are now toxic, and it/they will be shunned at meetings and events. They may well withdraw their candidate."

Rutkowski said a "rather on-point historical precedent" came in 1989, when an "eminently well qualified, and widely liked candidate" for an elected International Frequency Registration Board position lost because of Tiananmen Square. "Russia's actions here significantly exceed the circumstances of 1989," he said.

The Russian invasion strongly works in Bogdan-Martin's favor, giving member states another reason to support her, said Rob Frieden, Penn State telecommunications and law emeritus professor. The secret ballot process means countries can vote for Bogdan-Martin without facing retaliation from Russia or a supporter like China, he said.

Issues often get connected and interlinked in international politics, and an unprovoked invasion of a democratic state, followed by atrocities against civilians, "is bound to have a spillover effect" into other areas, said Abi Williams, Tufts University professor-practice of international politics and former director-strategic planning for two U.N. secretaries-general. Wednesday's overwhelming U.N. General Assembly vote to condemn Russia's actions shows its increasing isolation there, he said. Also helping Bogdan-Martin is her insider status at the ITU, versus Ismailov's background working for the Russian government, Williams said.

“Just think what it would mean for the future of the internet if the current ITU sec-gen (from China) is succeeded by the Russian candidate. Esp if chosen over the outstanding @DoreenBogdan,” tweeted Chris Riley, senior fellow at the R Street Institute: “Takes on new resonance in the current geopolitical climate.”