Howard Buskirk

GSMA Intelligence expects trends in 5G growth and wide variations among the regions of the world will continue through the start of 6G in 2030, Emanuel Kolta, lead analyst-network sustainability and innovation, said Thursday. Kolta spoke during a Mobile World Live webinar. 5G isn’t new; the first commercial network launched in 2019, Kolta noted. “We have enough information to have some level of understanding about 5G and how the market, how users reacted to the launch,” he said. GMSA finds 75% of consumers say they’re happy with their 5G networks and satisfaction levels are growing, he said. In addition, it notes about a third are interested in fixed wireless access, which is a leading use case in many markets. The group also found that how 5G is deployed varies more by region than in earlier generations. He cited Southeast Asia as an example, where, more than in other regions, 5G connects “things” rather than just people. In countries with limited fiber penetration, including the U.S., the U.K. and South Africa, “FWA is a success story.” Regional differences will continue, he predicted. By GSMA’s latest count, 265 operators in 114 markets have launched 5G. By the end of the year, 5G connections are expected to reach 2 billion worldwide, “which is an enormous number,” and climb to 5.6 billion in 2030. After a period when the design and technology built into phones “kind of stalled,” consumers expect the next generations of phones to offer innovations, he said. “We also see some risks, such as the drop in smartphone sales in recent years” and the potential for geopolitical conflicts and other problems to cause supply chain issues. “We expect that consumer enthusiasm will continue,” he said: “We expect that North America will lead in terms of 5G penetration” with 90% penetration and 460 million connections by 2030. GSMA also sees data traffic continuing to grow at 30% annually. “There was some discussion around it slowing down, but bigger screens and better cameras continue to increase data traffic,” as does the growth of the IoT. GSMA believes 2G and 3G will still be used in five years, even though 5G has grown more quickly than any generation of wireless, he said. 4G networks will also continue to see broad use, though less than today.

The current technology market is easy to characterize, Mark Bagley, managing director at Woodside Capital Partners, said during a Wireless Communications Association webinar Thursday. “What’s hot” is AI and generative AI “and what isn’t hot is whatever is not gen-AI -- that’s where we are at this stage.” The wireless sector is becoming more interesting for investors, partly because of SpaceX’s push to put more satellites into low earth orbit, offering satellite broadband with much lower latency than the two or three seconds users experienced in the past, he said. The latency and bandwidth from satellites means a service that offers more than just data, “which is what we thought it was going to be.” Venture capitalists are also interested in federal programs like BEAD and are investing, Bagley said. Carrier assumptions about 5G were wrong, he said: “They expected that everyone would be using continuously” 200 Mbps “or some ridiculous amount. That has not been the case.” Henry Huang, investment director at Micron Ventures, said he’s not very interested in investing in 5G. “If there’s anything related to wireless that’s interesting it’s going to be in the sky,” Huang said. “LEO is a big thing.” One big change for satellite is a tenfold reduction in launch costs, he noted. “You are able to launch a smaller satellite at a lower altitude and those satellites are much cheaper than the previous ones” and use “off-the-shelf components." SpaceX’s Starlink “is obviously the leader here, but there are a bunch of startups coming up.” The challenge will be trying to compete with the big players like Starlink and Amazon's Kuiper, but some smaller players will likely benefit from federal spending programs or may target the IoT rather than broadband consumers, he said. Huang mentioned he predicted three years ago that millimeter-wave frequencies would be increasingly important for U.S. carriers, but he was wrong. “If there is spectrum available at lower frequencies, then its propagation characteristics are just way better” and it doesn’t make sense to use mmW in satellite or terrestrial networks. High-band could still “take off” but that will take a long time because deployment costs are so high. There “could be opportunities in 5G, but it’s going to be in some large, emerging economies, for example, India.” Said Laura Swan, managing partner at Silicon Catalyst Ventures, five years ago investors got into 5G and that market remains slow. “How do we get data from the satellites?” For a country like India, the cost of fiber deployment is “too high” and fixed wireless access offers an alternative. “We have started to see" an opportunity in FWA, “but as we have seen with all 5G, is it actually going to take hold?” Lisa Oshima, managing consultant at Socialize Mobilize, said, the “really flashy stuff,” like launching satellites, is “always sexy and cool.” Getting data speeds on the ground “is really complicated.” Yet it seems "like some of the boring tech … is actually becoming important to the way the world is evolving.”

Open radio access network deployments could soon reach an important stage as open networks mature, experts said Thursday during an Informa Tech webinar. Speakers agreed that further work remains before ORAN is deployed by operators worldwide.

John Windhausen, executive director of the Schools, Health & Libraries Broadband Coalition, said Wednesday his organization is willing to work with FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr and other Republicans to save a program that lets schools and libraries use E-rate support for off-premises Wi-Fi hot spots and wireless internet services. On tap to lead the FCC next year under President-elect Donald Trump, Carr voted against the E-rate program's creation, as did fellow Republican Nathan Simington (see 2410070028).

The FCC released on Wednesday text of three items scheduled for a vote at the commissioners’ Dec. 11 open meeting, including rules that would allow new very-low-power (VLP) devices to operate without coordination across the 6 GHz band (see 2411190068). The FCC will also consider changing USF letter of credit (LOC) rules and updating several broadcast radio and TV rules.

The FCC on Thursday adopted long-awaited final rules for cellular-vehicle-to-everything technology in the 5.9 GHz band. “These rules will improve transportation safety and permit more efficient mobility as this advanced communications technology is integrated into vehicles and infrastructure,” said a news release. FCC Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel circulated proposed rules in July.

AI and traditional telecom infrastructure aren’t the same and a carrier may require different structures for each in their networks, Beth Cohen, Verizon advanced networking and security product strategist, said Tuesday during a TelecomTV webinar. “They’re actually quite different types of workloads, so to build the infrastructure to support them doesn’t necessarily require an integration between the two workloads,” she said. Another question for providers is the extent they’re going to rely on a third-party cloud provider to handle workloads that are “highly compute intense and storage intense.” These are “early days” for AI and networking and each carrier must work through problems itself, she said. “It would be great if there was more consensus, but I don’t think there is yet.” Fernando Castro Cristin, vice president-telco infrastructure at Hewlett Packard Enterprise, said companies want AI to reduce costs and optimize their business and generate revenue. “The telecom industry is there to connect all that together,” he said, adding carriers already are using AI to optimize parts of their networks. “We’ve been optimizing networks for decades, not using AI,” Cohen said. “It’ll be interesting to see how much AI can optimize further.” There’s also a push for carriers to open networks so they can offer customers AI-based applications. “That is very much more exciting and a newer approach to using AI and using the infrastructure to support it,” Cohen said. That’s also much more complicated and puts additional pressure on providers to protect customers’ data, she added. Cristin predicted security will become more important than it is today.

Wireless carriers across the world are making huge investments in their networks, and in AI, but have yet to see the return on investment they’re seeking, executives said Tuesday during an RCR Wireless telco AI forum. Colin Bannon, chief technology officer at BT, confirmed carriers' big AI bets, though he acknowledged many questions remain.

In what could be its last full meeting under Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel, the FCC on Dec. 11 will consider rules that would expand parts of the 6 GHz band where new very-low-power (VLP) devices can operate without coordination, beyond the initial 850 MHz commissioners approved last year (see 2310190054). Commissioners at the open meeting will also consider changing rules that govern letters of credit for USF programs and an item updating several broadcast radio and TV rules. Also on the agenda are various enforcement items, which will be released after the commission's approval.

McLaughlin Chiropractic Associates laid out why the U.S. Supreme Court should overturn the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals' decision that, under the Hobbs Act, courts must accept the FCC’s interpretation of the Telephone Consumer Protection Act. McLaughlin pointed to PDR Network v. Carlton & Harris Chiropractic, a 2019 SCOTUS case about FCC authority to implement the TCPA. The court handed down what was seen as a middle-of-the-road decision in that case (see 1906200055). “There, the Fourth Circuit held that it was bound by the FCC’s interpretation of the TCPA, just like the Ninth Circuit did,” said a brief SCOTUS posted Monday. “Although a majority of this Court didn’t reach the question, four Justices concluded that the Hobbs Act ‘does not bar’ a party ‘from arguing that the agency’s interpretation of the statute is wrong,’” the brief said: “Like PDR Network, this case involves private TCPA claims for money damages and the appeal turns on whether an FCC order bound the court.” Nothing in the Hobbs Act’s text “supports the Ninth Circuit’s reading,” McLaughlin said: “Nor is there any other basis to conclude that Congress designed the Hobbs Act to strip district courts of their authority to interpret a federal statute. … No one doubts that district courts may not hear pre-enforcement petitions seeking those specific forms of relief.” But the Hobbs Act “says nothing about other kinds of actions, like a private action for money damages, that are properly filed in federal district court under ordinary federal-question jurisdiction.” SCOTUS is to hear oral argument Jan. 21 in McLaughlin Chiropractic Associates v. McKesson. The case is viewed as having larger implications for the FCC beyond its legal interpretation of the TCPA (see 2410170015).