Implications of Trump/Musk Break-Up for SpaceX Are Unclear

Musk was an influential Trump adviser, at least until the two engaged in acrimonious attacks on each other on social media earlier this month. Entrepreneur and commercial astronaut Jared Isaacman told the All-In podcast earlier this month that the White House's withdrawal of his nomination to head NASA was related to his ties to Musk. The withdrawal coincided with the Musk/Trump breakup, which was reportedly accelerated as a result, Isaacman said.

Musk last week appeared to seek a rapprochement, writing on X, "I regret some of my posts about [Trump] last week. They went too far." Trump told reporters last week the two "had a good relationship, and I wish him well."

As long as the White House considers itself neither allied nor feuding with Musk, SpaceX won't continue to receive special treatment the way it has, Public Knowledge Senior Vice President Harold Feld told us. He said some FCC actions, like activity around EchoStar's use of the 2 GHz band, were clearly motivated by SpaceX, so those efforts might not go forward. "That doesn't mean SpaceX is in the doghouse," given how FCC Chairman Brendan Carr seems bullish on satellite, Feld added. As such, efforts at expanding satellite-available spectrum should continue, he said.

It's unclear whether SpaceX is no longer favored by the FCC or if it's targeted for punishment, Feld said. Also unknown is whether the White House ends efforts to have other nations grant market access to SpaceX, he added.

The Trump/Musk fight "certainly doesn't hurt" EchoStar, Feld said. The FCC probe into the company's use of the 2 GHz band was on behalf of SpaceX, but the related scrutiny of EchoStar's 5G network buildout seems to indicate that SpaceX wasn't the sole driver of FCC action. There's speculation that Carr is trying to force EchoStar to sell spectrum holdings, Feld said.

The complexity and rigor of federal procurement and licensing processes are underappreciated, emailed Michelle Hanlon, executive director of the University of Mississippi's Center for Air and Space Law. Such complexity should limit arbitrary slowdowns or rejections, she said. However, any process can be politicized, and SpaceX -- which has often complained about the perceived sluggishness of licensing -- has suggested politics played a role, she said. "That said, I think for once, we can take comfort in the fact that red tape is red tape and will be applied in a nonpartisan manner by government regulators."

SpaceX's government contracting work shouldn't suffer going forward because of the Musk/Trump relationship, Hanlon said. The company's contracts were awarded "not out of favoritism but because [of its] comparatively lower costs and success rate," she said. "If SpaceX suffers, it will not be as a part of the contracting process, but by strategic/policy decisions to support competitors," reducing U.S. reliance "on one service provider."

SpaceX has benefited from the U.S. government being a heavy user of its launch services and satellite connectivity, satellite consultant Ruth Pritchard-Kelly noted. So, while the administration could threaten SpaceX's licenses, it also presumably will think twice before hamstringing the U.S. military, she said. Canceling Starlink's licenses "is not going to happen."

Hanlon added that the White House "seems committed to U.S. leadership in space," and for now, retaining that leadership requires continued interaction with SpaceX.

Still, EchoStar Chairman Charlie Ergen will undoubtedly try to leverage the Trump/Musk falling-out to his company's advantage, satellite and telecommunications consultant Charlene King told us.

CCG Consulting's Doug Dawson emailed that the FCC has sizable leverage with SpaceX and EchoStar, but predicting what it will do is pure speculation. "My guess is that we’ll know within weeks if the administration wants to start cutting Elon’s companies out of the picture," he said.

EchoStar reportedly is considering filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to safeguard its FCC licenses from revocation. Satellite and spectrum consultant Tim Farrar wrote last week that unless Carr drops the EchoStar probes, that Chapter 11 filing was to come Saturday "to pre-empt any return to the original buildout dates." He called any notion of Carr backing down "unlikely."

Former FCC Commissioner Nathan Simington last week criticized the FCC's EchoStar probes as being potentially disruptive to the wireless marketplace (see 2506110055)

Asked whether the feud could help it land launch contracts with the U.S. government, Sierra Space told us members of its team, including interim CEO Fatih Ozmen, were at NASA headquarters as the online feud occurred earlier this month. In an email, the company said NASA leadership has "been telling us for quite some time -- including during our meetings last week -- that diversity is key," and the agency envisions several commercial companies providing transportation services for NASA missions. NASA doesn't "want to be reliant on a sole provider."

Sierra Space noted that its reusable Dream Chaser spaceplane is in final testing at Kennedy Space Center in Florida and will be ready for its first flight later this year. Dream Chaser could serve as a new capability for NASA for resupplying the International Space Station, it said. "We are ready to answer the call and support NASA however we can."