GSO Demand Slump Hasn't Turned a Corner: Analysys Mason
The number of geostationary orbit (GSO) satellites ordered in 2024 was at a 30-year low, and there's no sign of demand picking up, Analysys Mason satellite analyst Dallas Kasaboski said during the consultancy's webinar Monday. Analyst Lluc Palerm said time is of the essence for satellite or mobile network operators that are interested in direct-to-device (D2D) service but haven't yet entered into cooperative partnerships or agreements. Any such operator "needs to act fast [as] the train is moving."
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Amazon's Kuiper, with 102 satellites in orbit, already has surpassed the downlink capacity of OneWeb's 654, Analysys Mason's Chris Baugh said. Kuiper has downlink capacity of 3.7 Tbps, compared with OneWeb's 3.6, he noted, while China's 90-satelite Qianfan constellation has 4.4 Tbps and SpaceX's 7,716-satellite system has 260 Tbps.
With more operators launching supply, including Kuiper and Telesat, the non-GSO ecosystem will be increasingly competitive in coming years, Palerm predicted. Kuiper is already getting some traction, he said, pointing to its in-flight connectivity contract with JetBlue (see 2509040008). Competitors to NGSO constellations will have to adapt their offerings and prioritize areas that require specialization, such as military, backhaul and maritime, he said. Incumbents need to invest in R&D to avoid missing out on emerging technologies like D2D service and connected vehicles, he added.
While still an immature market, D2D is also progressing rapidly, Palerm said, with 75 models of smartphones boasting satellite capabilities and 57 mobile network operators that have launched or plan to launch D2D service, Palerm said.
At the same time, D2D's theoretical capacity per beam is limited, Palerm said, noting that models estimate that SpaceX's proposed 15,000-satellite D2D constellation (see 2509220006) would offer capacity per beam of around 18/7 Mbps, which would be shared by numerous subscribers per beam. That limited capacity is why SpaceX is investing so heavily in spectrum rights, as spectrum is a key limiting factor to offering more advanced D2D services, Palerm said.
Kasaboski said GSO struggles have grown as customers become interested in other competitive offerings, such as NGSO constellations. GSO manufacturers are trying to compensate with smaller GSOs and more flexible satellites, he said, but "it's not working yet," and orders haven't turned around.
Although there's growing interest among nations in having sovereign satellite constellations, only a handful have the budget and supply chain for a completely domestically sourced global constellation, Analysys Mason's Luke Wyles said.
Dedicated constellations aren’t cost-effective for small and midsize countries, Wyles said. A theoretical constellation for Saudi Arabia would cost $4 billion, and its usable capacity would cost three to five times more than it would commercially, he said. But collaborating with other nations drives down the cost per usable Mbps dramatically, he added.