SpaceX Subscribers to Hit 12M in 2026: Quilty
SpaceX’s Starlink broadband service is likely to end this year with roughly 8.2 million subscribers worldwide and add 3.8 million in 2026, Quilty Space said during a webinar Thursday. Quilty analyst Caleb Henry said SpaceX’s growth is being driven by the renewed addition of U.S. subscribers after it temporarily leveled off at about 1.3 million in late 2023 and early 2024. The company now has about 2 million U.S. subscribers, he said.
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Also bolstering growth is lower-priced equipment, which in turn is helping SpaceX add subscribers internationally, Henry said. He noted that Starlink consumer revenue is expected to be $7.2 billion this year and hit $10.3 billion in 2026. Meanwhile, Starlink’s average revenue per user is trending downward as it grows in price-sensitive markets like India and Africa, Henry said.
While Starlink continues to turn out 100 Gbps V2 satellites, its forthcoming V3's supposedly will have 1 Tbps capacity, “far and away the highest of any system we have seen out there,” Henry said. He added that Starlink appears to be increasing its satellite manufacturing volumes, giving it greater ability to bring its broadband fleet size into the tens of thousands and the capacity for direct-to-device (D2D) satellites. The version of SpaceX’s Starship vehicle that's expected to launch in early 2026, with a carrying capacity of 100 metric tons, will let it deploy the V3 satellites, Henry said. Quilty is forecasting eight Starship launches to deploy Starlinks in 2026, with most in the back half of the year; that doesn’t count other Starship missions for NASA. Henry said SpaceX is also projected to conduct a record 135 Falcon 9 launches in 2026.
Separately, BryceTech said that of the 1,198 spacecraft launched worldwide in Q2, SpaceX launched 1,060, most of which were its Starlink satellites. SpaceX was the busiest launcher in Q2, with 45 orbital launches. Next was China Aerospace Science and Technology with 16.
Quilty's Chris Quilty argued that Amazon's Kuiper is likely to be the only serious head-to-head competitor for SpaceX. While Kuiper said Thursday that it had its fifth successful satellite launch, with 129 Kuipers in orbit now, Quilty said Amazon has to overcome a "serious deficit" with SpaceX in launch costs and access. He said Kuiper's full constellation likely won't be in orbit until mid-2028.
Quilty analyst Kimberly Burke said D2D service likely won't generate meaningful revenue for SpaceX before 2027. One of its biggest hurdles is getting the ability to use 2 GHz spectrum baked into smartphones, she said, adding that Android should have that capability in 2026, but it's not clear when Apple might. SpaceX is buying EchoStar's 2 GHz license for its D2D service (see 2509080052).