Available LEO Capacity for BEAD Coming Into Question
While SpaceX is challenging at least one state, saying it was unfairly precluded from BEAD locations it should have won, a Vernonburg Group analysis points to low earth orbit (LEO) satellites being able to serve at most 26% of BEAD-eligible unserved and underserved locations nationwide. That lines up with the concerns of fiber advocates and others about LEO networks' ability to meet the legislative definition of a priority project -- such as delivering 100/20 Mbps service -- at BEAD scale, former BEAD Director Evan Feinman told us.
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LEO is probably the most cost-effective option for project areas with low population densities, but it can't meet the 100/20 Mbps minimum speed requirements in denser areas, Vernonburg said. Its analysis, focused on Starlink, said its V2 satellite can seemingly provide 100/20 service for just shy of seven broadband serviceable locations per square mile. That means Starlink can service 670,000 to, at most, 1.2 million locations, it said. Vernonburg said its math doesn't account for other factors that affect service quality, from tree foliage to higher-tier customers that would compete for available network capacity. "What seems cost-effective at first glance may not be the best choice if technological limitations mean that each location isn’t adequately served."
While LEO "can meet the needs of a limited but nonetheless significant percentage of BEAD-eligible unserved and underserved locations nationwide," Vernonburg's analysis also shows that a variety of technologies, including fiber, fixed wireless and LEO, will be needed.
Feinman told us at least one state believed it would have to award every location to Starlink under current rules, until NTIA offered it guidance. The number of subscribers is important to LEO network architecture, with service declining the more people are served, Feinman said. Ookla data indicates a minority of Starlink subscribers receive 100/20 Mbps service now (see 2506100005). While Starlink "is an incredible technology," NTIA needs to let states be flexible in what technologies they choose for BEAD projects, he added.
Feinman said the Trump administration has a thumb on the scale in favor of satellite technology, with some states -- such as West Virginia -- backing away from universal fiber plans, while Louisiana also seems to be reducing its use of fiber.
Louisiana and Virginia submitted their final BEAD proposals earlier this month to NTIA, and in both states LEO accounts for roughly 9-10% of awards. SpaceX last week criticized Virginia’s BEAD final proposal as overly favoring fiber (see 2508140057). It said Virginia used biased analyses to exclude the company from competing on an equal footing with other providers. It argued that 95% of BEAD locations in Virginia have a Starlink subscriber within a mile and 15% within 100 meters.
BEAD consultant Jade Piros de Carvalho said LEO capacity limits could be a challenge for Nebraska and Minnesota, with particularly heavy use of LEO in BEAD programs there. She said some states have indicated they haven't seen great participation from providers during the current "Benefit of the Bargain" application round. If they end up with a relatively low percentage of eligible locations covered in bids, they will "probably have to go pretty aggressive" on alternative technologies like LEO, she said.
Jake Varn, an associate manager with Pew’s broadband access initiative, told us that while the Vernonburg analysis is a physics-based maximum based on current technology and looking at the density of BEAD-eligible locations, states are considering other factors such as topography that could interfere with a satellite signal.