U.S. Bid to Host WRC-27 Mostly Seen as a 'Long Shot'
A U.S. offer this week to host the 2027 World Radiocommunication Conference is probably a long shot, WRC experts and watchers told us. In a letter dated Monday to ITU Secretary-General Doreen Bogdan-Martin, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's offer doesn't specify a U.S. location for WRC-27, saying it could be "any number of cities," including Washington.
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Shanghai was seen as the most likely host, but many U.S. officials are believed unlikely to attend due to China-related security and communications issues (see 2506180073).
Lutnick's letter said that, with Rwanda withdrawing its hosting bid, the U.S. "stands ready and willing to step up to provide a free and open environment to host this critical conference." A State Department spokesperson emailed that the host offer from the U.S. was made "to support the important work" of the ITU.
The U.S. "has something approaching zero chance" of hosting 2027, according to Tony Rutkowski, who previously served as counselor to two ITU secretaries-general. "The U.S. today, in most international venues and globally among a wide array of experts in the field, is essentially toxic," he said via email. Its ITU participation "is almost nil." In addition, there's a strong "boycott-the-U.S. sentiment." The best the U.S. can hope for is that Bogdan-Martin will help maintain a level of cordiality in Shanghai, he said.
Host requests typically come down to a combination of a host's stature globally and the ability to make a persuasive case for moving away from the default of Geneva, Rutkowski said.
Scott Harris, managing partner of Crest Hill Advisors, told us the U.S. isn't the only country with concerns about the security of a China-hosted WRC. He said other nations also seem interested in an alternative to Shanghai. U.S. participation in WRC-27 would be "minimal" if it was held in China, and many nations -- even those not in agreement with the U.S. -- want to see its full participation, Harris said.
But given the lateness of Lutnick's offer, Harris added, U.S. hosting is probably "a long shot." The ITU Council was expected to make a WRC-27 location decision last week.
Others see much brighter potential for a U.S. WRC.
Dean Bubley, consultant at Disruptive Analysis, emailed that U.S. authorities likely have "counted up votes/members and [are] relatively confident." Plus, most or all of Europe would favor the U.S. over China, he said. The U.S. and Shanghai both have good infrastructure to host large conferences, he also noted, but the U.S. affords more freedom in the use of VPNs and has less overt surveillance and control over internet and other communications.
However, the White House's relative coolness toward international bodies like the U.N. and ITU could hurt its bid, Bubley said. It's unclear how that could affect funding and logistics for a U.S. WRC, he said, adding that it's possible there will be a compromise resulting in a neutral option, such as Switzerland.
Harris said the U.S. offer is a "great precedent" in the wake of questions about who will shoulder the expense and effort of hosting upcoming WRCs. The U.S. hasn't hosted in years, and its willingness to do so could mean it will offer again or open the door to other nations also offering, he said.