Upper C-Band Auction Likely a Year or More Away Even With an Aggressive FCC
If Congress authorizes the full-power licensed use of the upper C-band, an FCC auction appears unlikely before 2026 at the earliest, industry experts told us. The conventional wisdom is that it takes about a year between the initial preparation stages and an auction. But FCC Chairman Brendan Carr has promised to move quickly on spectrum and had put a notice of inquiry on the agenda for his first meeting as chairman, they also said (see 2502050057).
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In addition, questions remain about whether the major wireless carriers are really looking forward to the next big auction anytime soon. Experts note that Verizon and AT&T took hits on Wall Street after going big in the initial C-band auction (see 2101260054) and 2102250046).
AT&T CFO Pascal Desroches said last week that the carrier has no immediate need for additional spectrum, but would be interested if more came on the market (see 2506100046). T-Mobile is still busy building out its network using its 2.5 GHz holdings and AT&T and Verizon licenses purchased in the 3.45 GHz and C-band auctions. The FCC is also already planning an AWS-3 auction.
“Despite great interest in moving quickly, it takes time to procedurally prepare for a spectrum auction and the AWS-3 … licenses to be reauctioned are likely up first given the statutory deadline,” emailed former FCC Commissioner Mike O’Rielly.
An auction next year would be “very ambitious,” Recon Analytics’ Roger Entner said Friday. “It would be a great thing, but 2027 is much more likely.”
An auction is unlikely before next spring or summer, predicted Jeffrey Westling, American Action Forum director of technology and innovation policy. But Westling also noted that Carr made auctioning mid-band spectrum “a key priority for his tenure" and staff are probably working through upper C-band issues as Congress considers spectrum provisions in the reconciliation package (see 2506060029).
“There are still quite a few unanswered questions about interference and relocation of incumbent services” and “the rights of satellite users in the band,” Westling said. “The FCC will also need to decide on service rules, license sizes and a variety of other factors before the auction can proceed,” he said. For instance, since radio altimeters use the spectrum, the commission “may want to take a little more time to assuage concerns of the FAA and [the] aviation industry.” All of that is assuming the FCC gets auction authority, “which seems likely, but nothing is certain.”
A year from now is the most likely time for an auction, said Kristian Stout, director of innovation policy at the International Center for Law & Economics. “While the major carriers have expressed interest, particularly to boost mid‑band 5G, they’ll also assess alternative spectrum options and the true cost/risk before committing,” Stout said in an email. Even with momentum at the FCC, “timing will hinge on technical coordination (e.g., with aviation), the carrier appetite for contested spectrum, and the FCC’s pace through formal rulemaking."
Starting from Scratch
Cooley’s Robert McDowell noted that the FCC’s leadership in the last administration “concluded that the absence of auction authority did not allow it to even think about the next auction, let alone start drafting NPRMs and proposed rules.” Most communications lawyers “disagreed with that conclusion,” he said.
Commission staff could already be working on plans for the next set of auctions, McDowell said. “If so, a late-2026 auction is possible, but history teaches us that these things often take longer than expected,” he said. “The ideas for the upper C-band have been pretty fully debated for years, so it could be ripe to be among the first auctions out of the gate. Significant spectrum auctions will be a large portion of the Carr legacy, and there’s no time to waste.”
This upper C-band proceeding “will be a test of how flexible-use can work in an age of convergence between fixed, mobile, and different types of satellite operators,” emailed Joe Kane, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation director of broadband and spectrum policy. With diverse users' interest in this band, “a more expansive conception of flexibility, one that incorporates the coexistence of various types of terrestrial and space applications, will enable the most productive uses to win out.”
The outlook on timing remains unclear, Kane said. The benefit of an auction is “getting rights into the market where they can then be traded multiple times, so long as the commission minimizes transaction costs,” he said. If a potential buyer isn’t ready to bid, “the price will be lower for other operators who can use it more productively in the short term and can sell or lease it to other users later.” Regulation shouldn’t be “a bottleneck for innovation,” he added.