Tariffs, Geopolitics, SpaceX Competition Aren't Major Worries, Satellite Operators Say

While dramatic, such trade-related geopolitical tensions are temporary, Rivada Networks CEO Declan Ganley said at an event organized by SpaceNews. The ties between Western nations run deep and won't crumble suddenly or go away forever, he added. "This kind of disruption, I love it," he said, pointing to Europe's greater reliance on its defense and the resulting opportunity to provide secure communications with sovereign control to those nations.

"The long view is important," Telesat Chief Commercial Officer Glenn Katz said. There were increasing discussions among government customers about sovereignty needs even before the Russia/Ukraine war or U.S. trade war, he said. Those events provided "an exclamation point," reinforcing the need for private networks in space.

Ganley, Katz and Ian Canning, CEO of Eutelsat/OneWeb's Eutelsat America, described recent tariff issues as a short-term challenge, though Ganley acknowledged that it's not in the U.S.'s or Europe's interests to have major tariff disruptions. He said China will be targeted substantially more, and deservedly so, since it's "a massive threat" geopolitically. Ganley was critical of the EU's planned IRIS2 satellite communications constellation, calling it a "boondoggle." He said there's a need in Europe for greater entrepreneurship, in the space sector and across industry broadly.

Katz said Starlink is attracting enterprise customers because it's seen as enough for current needs. The competitive situation will change as networks targeting enterprise customers, like Telesat's forthcoming Lightspeed constellation, come online.

The operators were sanguine about Kuiper and Starlink competition. Demand for capacity “is massive," Ganley said. “There's space for Kuiper, there's space for Starlink, there's space for all of us here.” He said Rivada's forthcoming 600-satellite constellation is focused on government and large enterprise customers. Recent subsea cable breaks are driving increased interest in its offering and its data security and data sovereignty capabilities, he added.

Starlink, meanwhile, is "a great consumer broadband service" and more suited to that market, Ganley said.

The Telesat and Eutelsat/OneWeb executives similarly said they aren't focusing on consumers but on verticals like government, maritime, aviation and enterprise. Canning said Kuiper, like Starlink, will be a formidable competitor, but it also has a distinct target market. Starlink "definitely turned the industry on its head," but competitors like Eutelsat/OneWeb are helped by the fact that customers don't want to rely on any one provider, he said.

Katz said Lightspeed is benefiting hugely from Canadian government support -- both financially, including $2 billion loan and revenue commitments, and via its Trade Commissioner Service in embassies and consulates, helping Telesat get meetings in other nations at a scale the company would struggle to get itself. Ganley said Rivada has one substantial investment from a sovereign wealth fund and is in the process of finalizing funding from others.

Analysys Mason said this week that rapid U.S. policy shifts and a desire to be less dependent on SpaceX is increasingly driving space-sector development. "Rather than being a symbolic effort to follow industry leaders, development in the space sector is increasingly seen as a vital component of national defence and government budgets." It said the mega constellation under development by China's SpaceSail Technologies will likely aggressively try to build demand through pricing. IRIS2 "is likely too late and too small" to be a viable Starlink replacement for all of Europe, it said.