U.S. Conflicts With Traditional Allies Could Harm Cooperation on Spectrum
The Donald Trump administration’s tariffs and conflicts with traditional allies in North America and Europe could complicate U.S. preparations for the next World Radiocommunication Conference in 2027, experts said Tuesday during a Technology Policy Institute spectrum webinar. The U.S. has traditionally worked through the Inter-American Telecommunication Commission (CITEL), which represents the Americas region, but relationships with other CITEL members are increasingly in question, speakers said.
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“Who are our allies?” asked New Street’s Blair Levin. “It’s a question mark … if you look at what’s happening in markets today with the new Canadian tariffs.” Whether we still have European allies is questionable, Levin said. “We’re in deep trouble in a number of different forums” as a result of the administration tying U.S. interests to those of Russia, which could have "economic consequences," he said. Wall Street is concerned about the direction of the administration on spectrum, he said.
Levin noted the role played by Elon Musk, who leads SpaceX, and his conflict with Poland over the use of Starlink in Ukraine. Is the U.S. “representing what you and I might think of as our spectrum interests, or are we representing the interests of one company?” he asked.
“I don’t think you’re wrong,” responded David Redl, CEO of Salt Point Strategies and NTIA administrator during the first Trump administration. “I’m reticent to draw a conclusion on what the next four years will be like in the first 100 days,” he said. “We’re all sort of waiting to see what the new normal looks like in the Trump administration Part 2.”
Redl said CITEL “has always been a little bit contentious,” and some countries love the U.S., while others “love to hate” it. “The traditional orthodoxy on which camp each country falls in may have been upended in the last couple of months,” he said: “Nonetheless, CITEL as a voting bloc is pretty strong. … We also continue to have a lot in comment with our European allies.”
What the Trump administration will do with the national spectrum strategy, launched under former President Joe Biden, is an open question, warned Shawn Bone, Verizon senior director-public policy. “I’m not sure if that’s going to be answered by Congress,” he said. “It would be helpful for this administration to set out a vision on spectrum early.”
“We’re still building the team in the executive branch when it comes to spectrum,” said Arpan Sura, an aide to FCC Chairman Brendan Carr. “Auction authority or not, there’s a lot of important work that has already begun and needs to be completed.”
Band Studies
The band plan studies started under Biden should be ready soon, Sura said. “There’s a general mandate and a desire to move faster, to have concrete targets.” He disputed comments that spectrum policies are slanted to support a single company. “We are firmly an 'all of the above' administration,” he said.
The biggest question for the FCC on general auction authorization is “how are we going to negotiate a peace between the Armed Services committees and the Commerce committees?” said Public Knowledge Senior Vice President Harold Feld. DOD “has a lot of powerful allies” in Congress, he said. Without some way of resolving the conflict between DOD and industry, “we’re going to be stuck.”
Limiting spectrum reauthorization legislation to certain bands lowers how a bill would be scored by Congress, Redl said. Auctions also take a long time, he said, noting that he started working on the AWS-3 band in 2005, and the auction didn’t go into a statute until 2012. All the federal systems left in bands that haven’t already been addressed will be expensive to move, he said.
Levin said a huge issue on Wall Street, rarely discussed in Washington policy circles, is what EchoStar, parent of Dish Network, will do with the huge amount of spectrum it controls. Dish is signaling that answers are coming, most likely next year, he said. The question is whether Dish will “double down” on its network and use the spectrum for 5G, or “just say it’s not going to work” and sell off its licenses, he said.
New Street values that spectrum as worth about $62 billion, and Dish will want to sell off spectrum before the government is able to launch the next major auction, Levin said.
"It may seem crazy,” but preparation for WRC-27 is already underway, Redl said. “That’s how this cycle works, and the sooner we can get U.S. national positions in place, the sooner we can work the international system to make sure that we don’t find ourselves … behind the curve.”
The WRC process needs to start early and have consistent leadership from the administration, Redl said. That’s especially true if the U.S. wants to present “positions that have been worked over in our region, CITEL,” he said. “It’s going to be a long slog between now and the actual conference.”