Lack of Global Data Sharing Has Satellite Operators 'Flying Blind'

The satellite industry conference and trade show also saw satellite and terrestrial executives disagreeing over the business viability of direct-to-device service. D2D carries a “huge market potential,” offering revenue opportunities for mobile network operators (MNOs) and reducing their churn, said George Giagtzoglou, vice president-strategy and marketing for Omnispace. The service could also mean greater capital and operating efficiency for MNOs as they serve customers outside their terrestrial networks, he said. Consumer need “is not just in the middle of Nebraska,” he added, pointing to a slice of Rock Creek and Potomac Parkway in Washington, D.C., where he always loses a signal.

Francesco Grilli, vice president-product management at Qualcomm, said moving smartphone market share just 1% represents billions of dollars, so charging users for D2D isn't the only way of making money. D2D is also a capability that's relatively easy to explain to consumers, he argued. A confluence of issues -- from the size of the smartphone marketplace to the cost of space launch declining dramatically in the past decade -- makes D2D viable for smartphones, with its potential for wearable devices and cars to follow, he said.

But Rivada Space Networks Chief Commercial Officer Ronald van der Breggen questioned whether D2D is a sustainably profitable business model, since every additional cell tower installed in a previously unserved area results in a smaller potential customer base.

Analysys Mason's Lluc Palerm said its consumer survey data indicates that 30% of mobile subscribers would pay for D2D service, though compared with other regions of the world, interest in paying is lowest in North America. He said direct revenue opportunities are limited for D2D service that supports emergency alerts and messaging, but once it supports voice and data service -- likely starting in earnest in 2029 -- those opportunities increase. The pricing strategy that SpaceX and T-Mobile have taken for their D2D beta test shows the aim is to push T-Mobile subscribers to premium plans and drive the acquisition of new subscribers, he said.

International Approach

Janice Starzyk, deputy acting director of the Commerce Department's Office of Space Commerce, said the U.N. is likely the best home for international information sharing among satellite operators. She said there have been some discussions at the U.N. Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space about taking up that role. But international standards for space situational awareness data must come first, she said.

While a lot of objects are going into orbit, their carrying capacity hasn't been reached, Starzyk said, and better space traffic management would increase that capacity. No U.S. regulator is looking at carrying capacity issues, and none will without being directed to by statute, she said.

Similarly, there’s no regulation of on-orbit activities in the U.S. and won’t be absent statutory guidance from Congress, she said. However, she noted that such legislation could come soon, with Republican control of Congress and the White House potentially greasing the path.

Wilson Sonsini space lawyer Curt Blake, previously CEO of Spaceflight, a space rideshare firm, said it's almost impossible to imagine countries adopting an international scheme for space cooperation beyond the ITU, so the ITU is the default. He said the ITU must pressure nations to adopt more innovative spectrum-sharing approaches, adding that relying on industry to govern itself is not a good approach.

Asked about the likelihood of the White House, with its "America first" approach, pursuing international agreements for space traffic, Baum and Blake said the U.S. has the most to lose, considering its leadership position in space policy and activity, and pursuing such agreements would help secure that spot.

Elsewhere at the show, Viasat CEO Mark Dankberg predicted a growing number of "interesting maneuverings" by regulatory bodies worldwide as they use control of market access to protect their domestic space industries. He said U.S. efforts to push allied nations to pick up more of the cost of their defense will result in additional countries having domestic space industries. Governments that can't afford geostationary orbit (GSO) or low earth orbit (LEO) constellations are increasingly asking commercial operators about getting the equivalent of sovereign capability from private operators, Eutelsat CEO Eva Berneke said.

SES CEO Adel Al-Saleh said SpaceX gets undue public and media attention when it lands a big contract, like with John Deere (see 2402010055) or United Airlines (see 2409130002), while GSOs don't get the same attention for their big wins. "The narrative needs to change a little bit," he said.

Al-Saleh and other GSO CEOs were critical of the technology capacities available from suppliers. Al-Saleh said SES would like to launch new iterations of satellites yearly, instead of every five years, but suppliers' R&D can't accommodate that pace. Viasat's Dankberg said the company is moving toward generic GSOs that cost far less than traditional GSOs, can be turned out in half the time, and can be customized. Intelsat CEO David Wajsgras predicted that in four or five years not all the traditional satellite manufacturers will be in the business.

Berneke said LEOs will likely have 75%-80% of the connectivity market share in six to seven years. The remaining market share still represents a growth opportunity for GSOs, she added.

Satellite 2025 Notebook

China’s Qianfan “Thousand Sails” constellation could be a global player by 2026, Analysys Mason's Chris Baugh said. There are multiple Chinese constellations in some stage of development, and Qianfan looks particularly likely to come to fruition, he said. He added that in emerging markets like Brazil, Nigeria and Malaysia, Qianfan will soon offer capacity somewhat competitive with SpaceX or what Amazon’s Kuiper should bring. Whether there’s enough demand globally to support Qianfan, SpaceX and Kuiper remains to be seen, Baugh said. Space experts see Thousand Sails as unlikely to seek or receive U.S. market access (see 2502130042).

The Office of Space Commerce lost a lot of its staffing last month to federal job cuts, but some staffers have been brought back due to such issues as statutory mandates of some of its work, Starzyk said, citing the program manager for the Traffic Coordination System for Space (TraCSS) as an example. She said the agency is still continuing TraCSS, which was required by a space policy directive of President Donald Trump's first administration.

Analysys Mason's Dallas Kasaboski said space launch bottleneck issues won't go away soon, even when SpaceX's Starship heavy launch rocket becomes commercially available. Starship will be busy with projects like the U.S. Artemis lunar missions. Meanwhile, neither the legacy launch operators nor emerging operators are launching enough to reduce the bottleneck. The established heavy launch players launch only a few times annually and are focused on government, military and high-profile GSO missions, he said. Several emerging small launchers are planning their inaugural launches this year, and it will take time for them to ramp up launch cadence, he said.

Telesat is “good to go” with financing for its forthcoming Lightspeed LEO constellation, said CEO Dan Goldberg, adding that the company has spent $1.5 billion and will dole out an additional $1 billion this year. He said the first Lightspeed launch is scheduled for the second half of 2026, with full commercial, global coverage available by the end of 2027.