Space Launch Operators See No Easy Fixes for Traffic Jam
Despite the bottleneck of launch availability at the most heavily used U.S. sites, launch operators don't foresee packing up and moving to another, lesser-used spaceport. Launch company executives speaking Monday at the Satellite 2025 show in Washington said the size of rockets, especially heavy launch vehicles, precludes using some spaceports. Regulatory issues can also be an impediment. Brian Rogers, vice president-global launch services for Rocket Lab, added that it's incredibly expensive to set up infrastructure at another site.
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Also at the show, SES CEO Adel Al-Saleh pointed to big direct-to-device growth opportunities as he announced that his company is partnering with Lynk Global and investing in its forthcoming constellation as SES' entry into the D2D space. In addition, SES said it would provide an array of services to Lynk, including routing traffic between low earth orbit (LEO) and SES' medium earth orbit network, which would reduce the investment needed in ground infrastructure. SES said it would also use its global ground network to provide telemetry, tracking, command and monitoring services for Lynk. The two companies plan to partner on developing Lynk's network architecture and on satellite manufacturing in the U.S. and Europe.
Stephanie Bednarek, vice president-commercial sales at SpaceX, said the company is eyeing 170 or so launches this year, up from 134 in 2024, and the launch cadence will continue growing in future years. Jarrett Jones, Blue Origin’s New Glenn senior vice president, said the launch company is counting on the start of more satellite constellations, with its New Glenn rocket designed to meet that demand. He said Blue Origin's 2025 priority is setting a pace of launches and ramping that up in coming years. Mark Peller, United Launch Alliance's senior vice president-Vulcan development and advanced programs, said LEO constellations are more than half of the company's backlog. He said ULA has invested in its launch site, factory and supply chain to support more launches of Amazon's LEO Kuiper satellites, and that creates launch capacity it can also use with other customers and markets. Peller added that launch operators and the government must try squeezing as many hours a day as possible out of existing, heavily used locations.
Given the demand for launch services, the peaks and valleys of the launch marketplace won't go away, but the valleys “aren’t going to be as deep” as they once were, Peller said.
SpaceX's Bednarek said the company's Starship heavy launcher will disrupt the launch market in terms of the volumes it can put up at low prices. She said Starship's launch cadence will be "significantly more" than the 170 Falcon 9 launches predicted this year, which will open up changes in satellite design and lifespans.
The Airbus A380, the world’s largest airliner, hasn’t replaced demand for all sorts of smaller aircraft, Rocket Lab's Rogers said later. A super-heavy rocket has big value for certain applications, but a smaller, reusable launch vehicle, like Rocket Lab’s Neutron, makes more sense for some constellations, he added.
Blue Origin's Jones said the path to millions of people living and working in space requires sizably cutting the cost of getting there -- far more than it has dropped in recent years. He said Blue Origin sees a future where aircraft and rockets are regularly launching and landing at places like Orlando International Airport, though there would need to be major regulatory and infrastructure changes first.
Multiple geostationary orbit (GEO) operators speaking at the Satellite 2025 show said they have some form of antenna that operates in GEO and LEO, but the technology needs improvement. Intelsat Chief Commercial Officer Mike DeMarco said the company is working on its second generation of electronically steered antennas for aviation applications. But when it comes to multi-orbit antennas for networks, there is “still some work to do,” and pairing GEO and LEO antennas remains the best option. Steve Gizinski, Viasat Government's chief technology officer, said a lot of companies are working on multi-orbit antennas, but their heavy power consumption is a big hurdle.
DeMarco said Intelsat has a strong focus on a multi-orbit strategy, considering it has a backlog of more than 1,000 aircraft for multi-orbit antennas for aviation connectivity and close to 700 to be equipped by year-end. He said it's moving toward having a network of software-defined high-throughput GEOs in orbit over the next two years, with non-GEO satellites layered in.
Satellite 2025 Notebook
The satellite industry is increasingly dominated by deep-pocketed mega-constellation operators, and others wishing to survive need to scale up their market reach and capabilities, Al-Saleh said, explaining the rationale behind SES’ pending Intelsat takeover. He said the deal has received regulatory approval in some smaller jurisdictions, and the focus now is getting U.S., EU and U.K. clearance. He said SES should close on Intelsat in the second half of the year. Selling capacity -- the standard operating procedure for satellite operators for decades -- “is no longer a successful business model,” Al-Saleh said, adding that the focus must be on offering integrated solutions, often in partnership with other companies.
MDA Space's manufacturing capabilities for its software-defined Aurora satellite are ramping up, with the company expecting to begin production of both the broadband and D2D versions in 2026, CEO Mike Greenley said. Telesat is the anchor customer for the broadband version, ordering more than 200 for its Lightspeed constellation, and Globalstar anchors the D2D version, ordering more than 50, he said.