Carriers Hungry for Spectrum But Outlook Is Unclear: Chaplin
Wireless carriers must add spectrum and deepen their fiber commitment, New Street’s Jonathan Chaplin said Wednesday. “Carriers should buy every piece of spectrum they can get their hands on … because we’re going to run out at some point relatively soon,” he told a Broadband Breakfast webinar. “There’s a scramble for both categories of assets, and they’re both imperative.”
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For wireless providers, “your spectrum share is indicative of where your market share is going to be in the future.” Chaplin added that carriers should buy fiber and other assets when available. “There is a scarcity of fixed infrastructure assets as well,” he said. “This is a one-time opportunity to pick up what’s there.” AT&T and Verizon probably won’t be allowed to buy a cable operator, so they will be left buying telecom assets, he said. “There’s one asset in every market that they can own.”
Just three bands below 6 GHz are under discussion to be made available by the FCC for 5G -- the lower 3 GHz, upper C band and, potentially, additional broadcast spectrum. “There’s a chance the carriers get none of it,” he said, noting lobbying by advocates of sharing and open access, who want the spectrum made available through a model based on the citizens broadband radio service band. “You’ve also got satellite, with a very powerful voice in this administration, clamoring for spectrum.” SpaceX CEO Elon Musk is a top adviser to President Donald Trump.
A fight is brewing on the upper C band, the topic of a notice of inquiry set for a vote at the FCC’s Feb. 27 meeting (see 2502060062), Chaplin noted. The FAA is also likely to be concerned about the threat to radio altimeters, he said (see 2502120046). Chaplin predicted the FCC would have to provide a guard band of at least 100 MHz at the top of the band to protect altimeters. That means 100 MHz could be available for full-power licensed use, which would be a 10% increase in the supply of lower midband spectrum, enough to address about one year of spiraling demand for data, he said: “Fantastic if we release it, [but] not enough.”
The lower 3 GHz appears unlikely to be cleared for carrier use, though “there’s a chance." Chaplin noted that the Trump administration is taking a “very aggressive approach” to dealing with DOD concerns and “going after what have historically been sacred cows.” Sharing appears more likely than clearance, he said, but the amount of spectrum that could be made available remains “very unclear,” as does the timeframe.
The launch of another auction of broadcast TV spectrum is “really only just kicking off” and is also “politically charged,” Chaplin said. “That could easily take the better part of a decade to run its course.” EchoStar’s Dish Wireless is also “sitting on” 140 MHz of nationwide spectrum, he noted. “It’s the best of all possible spectrum that’s available to the carriers,” but EchoStar’s intentions are unclear. If Dish decides to sell, that could be the first spectrum “that gets folded into the networks of AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile.”
The major wireless carriers are girding for additional auctions, Chaplin said. New Street estimates that in 2026, carriers will have $100 billion to spend on spectrum, $160 billion by 2028.