CTA: New Tariffs Could Suppress Purchases of Smartphones, Other Devices

But new tariffs could mean a decline of up to $143 billion in U.S. consumer purchasing power and lead to a decline of up to 37% in the purchase of smartphones, CTA said. Purchases of laptops and tablets could decline by as much as 68%, it added.

“Tariffs are a tax on American businesses and consumers,” said CTA CEO Gary Shapiro: “We urge the incoming administration and Congress to prioritize an Innovation Agenda that fosters growth.”

Brian Comiskey, CTA futurist, said during a “trends to watch” presentation Monday the group’s growth forecast for 2025 could change depending on Trump's actions. Products consumers “rely on and love,” like smartphones and laptops, “are threatened by President-elect Trump’s tariff proposals,” he said. “We’re going to be closing watching this.”

Comiskey also urged attendees to pay close attention to the rise of Generation Z, born between 1997 and 2012. Nine of 10 members live in Africa, Southeast Asia and South America, he said. “When watching for emerging technology, we need to understand … how the innovations that emerge address the needs and preferences” of that generation in those countries.

Gen Z grew up with smartphones, “making them, arguably, the first true digital natives,” Comiskey added. Some 60% of the generation are early adopters of tech, meaning they’re comfortable with early replacement cycles “and take pride in owning the latest technologies.”

Another trend to watch in 2025 is tech companies seeking to reap returns on their AI investments, Comiskey said. Generative AI “is naturally evolving into AI agents, which can autonomously do business tasks like payroll management, client-relationship management, for us.” On view at CES is another big trend: the rise of digital twinning, Comiskey said. Twinning virtualizes a physical object into a virtual environment, “unlocking research and development at a fraction of the cost.”

Consumers are also seeking hardware upgrades, adding AI to their smartphones and other devices. GenAI “is not just a hype cycle” and 61% of U.S. consumers have already used an AI tool, he said.

Standards

UL Standards & Engagement (ULSE), a nonprofit standards development organization, meanwhile, released a report Monday on the importance of standards in helping consumers trust smart home devices. The FCC recently selected UL Solutions, another part of the organization founded as Underwriters Laboratories, as lead administrator in the agency’s voluntary cyber trust mark program (see 2412040038). “Certification marks and labels (32%) indicating compliance to standards now match consumer trust ratings for traditional indicators like brand reputation (32%) and expert reviews (29%),” based on a recent survey, the report said.

“Standards and certifications are building market value by cultivating consumer trust,” said Sayon Deb, director-insights at ULSE, who spoke at CES Monday. “This is sending us a clear signal in terms of what the market is saying” and how “consumers are reacting to certification labels.” Standards have evolved from a technical, regulatory requirement “into a genuine strategic asset.”

UL has more than 1,700 standards in its portfolio, said Lesley Rohrbaugh, ULSE head-insights and policy analysis. The group’s first standard was released in 1903 for the tin-clad fire door, she said. The group now has more than 4,000 technical committee members developing standards. “It’s not just UL putting out standards. It’s a group of manufacturers, consumers, supply-chain professionals and more, coming together.”

“We know that we need industry best practices,” said Kerri Haresign, CTA senior director-technology and standards. If a consumer uses a technology and has a bad experience, “they’re probably going to be a little bit more hesitant to use the technology again,” she said. “That’s not what anyone here in this room wants.”