'Complicated Future' Coming for Orbital Debris as FCC Looks at Rules
Satellite operators in low Earth orbit are falling behind geostationary orbit operators in preventing orbital debris, due to the age of some LEO satellites and less-rigorous regulation and enforcement by some nations, said Aerospace Space Innovation Directorate Senior Project Engineer Marlon Sorge during a panel Thursday. Global agreement and coordination on debris issues seems unlikely now, given the struggle international space rules face in general, said Michiru Nishida, the Japanese embassy's special adviser-arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation policy.
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The FCC International Bureau is working on smallsat-centric space debris rules, though any NPRM isn't likely until next year as the bureau first focuses on a small satellite proceeding that, among other things, would probably define what a smallsat is, a satellite official told us separately. The agency didn't comment.
International rulemaking on space issues like debris is "imperative," Nishida said, adding cooperation with the U.S. on space policy is a high priority for Japan. But nations reaching a consensus on space policy "seems uncertain" given resistance the proposed international code of conduct met with from some nations, he said.
Aerospace Chief of Government Relations Frank Rose -- until earlier this year assistant secretary of state-arms control, verification and compliance -- said that short of international agreements, bilateral steps are likely. He pointed to the U.S. and China last year having a series of talks about mutual interests on orbital debris. Mitigation of debris will require better space situational awareness data for better conjunction assessments, more sharing among satellite operators of their maneuver and operations plans, more automation of conjunction assessments and maybe even transponders on all new space objects for better situational awareness, said Ted Muelhaupt, Aerospace associate principal director-systems analysis and simulation subdivision.
About 40,000 objects in orbit are cataloged, but that's not a definitive list -- only debris with a predictable orbital pattern and known origin, Muelhaupt said. Any object, like a satellite, in orbit for a length of time will be hit by something, as evidenced by the extensive pockmarking when objects are brought back to the Earth, he said. Given the expected boom in space traffic due to new operators, new space business models and additional countries' involvement in space, and the additional debris that activity will likely bring, "we've got a complicated future," he said.
The variety of satellite constellations that have been announced to be launched could easily add tens of thousands more items of space debris over the next decade, Muelhaupt said. With debris the thickest in parts of low Earth orbit, that debris could pose a particular issue for a variety of LEO satcom and Earth observation constellations planned by companies ranging from Boeing, OneWeb and SpaceX to Orbcomm and Spire, according to Aerospace.