Heavy Launchers Coming, but Satellite Demand Is Less Clear
While launch companies pursue a new generation of super-sized launchers aimed at everything from military to non-geostationary orbit (NGSO) markets, there's no clear idea how interested the commercial satellite industry might be. But launch and satellite industry experts generally agree bigger launchers shouldn't translate into bigger or new regulatory hurdles.
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Big launchers, particularly reusable ones, could fundamentally change the burgeoning NGSO market, said Blue Origin Vice President-Sales, Marketing and Customer Experience Clay Mowry. For low-earth orbit constellations, the biggest cost is launch, and big, reusable launch vehicles -- like Blue Origin's planned New Glenn -- could make those NGSO constellations far more affordable to deploy and operate, he said.
Blue Origin will go after an array of markets with its two- or three-stage New Glenn, starting with commercial, and eventually manned spaceflight, with rocket reusability being the key, Mowry said. Eutelsat is Blue Origin's first commercial launch customer, with a launch expected in 2021 (see 1703070026). Blue Origin's New Glenn factory in Florida should be complete by year's end, Mowry said.
The inaugural launch of SpaceX's Falcon Heavy rocket is expected later this year, with Arabsat, Inmarsat, ViaSat and Air Force payloads announced. Military space customers will probably be the biggest for heavy-lift vehicles, but there will be some commercial customers, the company said, saying upgrades to its Falcon 9 rocket have let that launcher pick up some missions that had previously been slated for Falcon Heavy. Boeing/Lockheed Martin joint venture United Launch Alliance said it plans to put up its first Vulcan rocket in 2019, and Orbital ATK is looking at 2021 for the first certification test flight for its Next Generation Launch system for intermediate and large launchers in 2021.
Mowry said he anticipates no regulatory problems, with the reusability of the rocket being the only new twist, but it will land on ships downrange, so there will be no issues of flying back to the Cape Canaveral launch site. A launch company official also said the FAA is expected to go through the same licensing process for each flight regardless of the vehicle used. A satellite executive said orbital debris and the increasing potential for cluttered orbit traffic are likely going to be far more important to regulators and policymakers than the size of the launchers themselves. The FAA didn't comment Friday.
EchoStar Vice President-Regulatory Affairs Jennifer Manner said the increased competition is a positive, welcomed development. A satellite company official said high-throughput geostationary satellites are often in big configurations, and there's little competition in that part of the launch market. Despite SpaceX, there still are availability constraints for launches, the official said.
Given the thousands of NGSO satellites now the subject of applications pending at the FCC (see 1703020036, 1611160010 and 1606230050), there's a need for more launch capacity, said Satellite Industry Association President Tom Stroup. But the commercial satellite universe is focused more on smaller launch vehicles and the more than 40 companies that have announced plans for such vehicles aimed at the NGSO market, with government and military demand the bigger driving force behind big launchers, he said. Companies with NGSO constellation plans already are talking with launch companies about existing vehicles or with small launcher companies that are further along in development, he said.
Government and commercial demand both are driving the supersizing, said Northern Sky Research analyst Carolyn Belle. She said there's ongoing private sector demand for launchers offering better cost-per-kilogram, as long as they also meet reliability and availability requirements.
Currently, the Arianne 5 is the only cost-competitive rocket that can launch very large geostationary transfer orbit payloads, but commercial operators want multiple launch options for a given satellite, Belle said. That has constrained satellite mass and volume, and having a large launcher option would give satellite operators more flexibility in satellite designs. But she said commercial or government demand isn't enough to support three or more large launch vehicles. Large launchers likely have less effect on the NGSO satellite market, since that would imply deploying dozens of satellites, which may not be optimal, Belle said.