International submarine cable is a growth market after seeming ‘d...

supply of lit capacity, spurring a “wave” of upgrades, he said. And prices are dropping thanks to cost reductions, Stronge said. The analyst said he expects another undersea cable boom in 2009 and 2010. The last boom, in 2000 and 2001, preceded a market crash when it became apparent that supply far outran demand. But companies should avert disaster this time, he said, because the supply increase is needed and costs are down. International Internet capacity grew 60 percent this year, and growth is expected to continue, Stronge said. Based on 2007 and 2008 numbers, South Asia is seeing the fastest growth, followed by the Middle East and Latin America, he said. Residential broadband subscribers are creating demand, Stronge said. Not including wireless broadband users, Telegeography expects 420 million broadband subscribers globally by year-end and 570 million by 2013, he said. Internet traffic is spurring capacity growth, and the Web accounts for most of the traffic, at 45 percent, he said. BitTorrent and other P2P applications commonly blamed for Internet congestion account for 25 percent, he said. Demand could be tempered by expansion of content delivery networks like Limelight, adoption of P2P traffic shaping, the P4P effort to make P2P more efficient and crackdowns on illegal file-sharing, he said. ISPs’ usage caps also could slow growth, he said.