Broad Use of Ultra-Wideband Years Away
LAS VEGAS -- Ultra-wideband won’t have a break through year in 2008, but gear with UWB chipsets finally is hitting store shelves, executives said at last week’s Consumer Electronics Show. UWB equipment was displayed on the CES show floor in clusters of booths under the WiMedia Alliance and elsewhere in stand-alone displays by larger Alliance members. But UWB’s breakthrough may not come until 2009 or 2010, industry officials said. Denizens of WiMedia booths told us they sense disappointment among some at CES about the number of products expected for the 2008 holiday buying season.
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International embrace of UWB was an FCC priority when Michael Powell chaired the commission. The FCC authorized use of UWB over a broad spectrum range -- 3 to 10.6 GHz. In many other counties, regulators, citing interference concerns, authorized use only above 6 GHz.
Computer makers Dell, Toshiba and Lenovo have UWB chips in notebooks on store shelves. Eight chipmakers have WiMedia Alliance certification to make UWB chips, with certification of four to seven more expected this year. Initially UWB will see use replacing USB cables linking computers to printers and other peripherals, industry officials said. In time, UWB will be built into everything from CD players to cameras and cellphones.
“We have reached a point of commercialization beginning,” said Intel’s Stephen Wood, president of the WiMedia Alliance. In October the Alliance certified several devices and chip-level products, qualifying them for the market, he said. The devices’ prices will be an issue. “We need to hit some magic price points,” Wood said. UWB chips sell for $15, a figure expected to fall below $5 within two years. “We have to get to about that $5 price level before we'll see overwhelming adoption,” Wood said.
Mass deployment of UWB is unlikely this year, judging by how fast Bluetooth and Wi-Fi grew, but that could occur more quickly if chipmakers decide to live with near-term losses to speed adoption, Wood said. “If one or more of them choose to do so then you'll see [the growth] period compressing,” he said. “If they don’t, it'll take longer.”
The UWB evolution is “real,” said Colin McNab, CEO of chipmaker Artimi. “We'll have chips in printers, hard drives, displays, camcorders, cameras, MP3 players and a bunch of other devices this year.” Devices with UWB chips are selling, if slowly, he said. “The demand will come in 2009 and 2010,” he said. “This year, the more educated techno consumer, the gadget freak, will start” to buy UWB products. McNab expects chipset prices to fall sharply, he said. “By the end of the year it will be $10,” he said. “By next year it will be $5.”
UWB hasn’t lived up to expectations, said a former FCC official. “It’s just another tool, and it may be that 10 years from now ultra-wideband will have a real niche in the market and it just isn’t the right time yet,” the official said. “There was once this notion that we were going to have this huge avalanche of ultra-wideband and I don’t know if I've seen that.”
“There was more interest last year” in UWB at CES, one meeting-goer said. “People are a little disappointed we don’t have more product to show and I think they thought there would be more by now.”