U.S. wireless carriers are ending 2024 strongly, with share prices of T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon up sharply, but tougher times may be coming, MoffettNathanson’s Craig Moffett said Friday in a note to investors. “Industry post-paid net adds remained well above population growth, allowing each of the Big Three to meet or beat their subscriber targets,” the note said: “Handset upgrade rates started the year at an almost implausibly low level … and then moved even lower from there. Low upgrade rates meant low churn, modest competitive intensity, low customer acquisition and retention expense, and high margins.” But one potential threat to net adds is the promise of President-elect Donald Trump's incoming administration's stance on immigration, Moffett said. That's a potential problem because immigration is a major contributor to industry unit growth, he said. Such growth is "likely to change with tighter borders and would be impacted still more by promised deportations.” Yet Apple investors are betting that more consumers will change their handsets, he said. "There is a clear mismatch between the expectations of Telecom investors, who appear to expect no acceleration in upgrade rates, and Apple investors, who appear to expect a dramatic one." Moffett also warned that the big carriers may be emphasizing convergence too much: “AT&T’s fiber footprint today reaches just 12% of households and will likely never reach more than 25%. Verizon’s fiber coverage today is about 9%, and even with Frontier and their own expanded build program, [it] is targeting only about 18% of housing units by 2028. T-Mobile, with Lumos and Metronet combined, covers less than 2% of housing units today with fiber and has no plausible path beyond about 9% by the end of the decade.” Leaning too hard into convergence, carriers “will inevitably raise consumer expectations and demand for converged bundles … that, by and large, they are unable to offer.”

Parts of the FCC’s August order approving a 5G Fund auction are effective Jan. 13 said a notice for Friday’s Federal Register. The auction is potentially in doubt. The order was approved 4-1 with Commissioner Brendan Carr dissenting. Carr was concerned that the FCC should have waited for additional clarity on what NTIA's BEAD program will support before holding a 5G Fund auction (see 2408290041). President-elect Donald Trump has tapped Carr to lead the FCC. “It is never wise to build on top of a faulty foundation,” Carr said in August: “The government’s focus today should be on fixing the fundamental flaws with BEAD and getting that program back on track.” He called for the elimination of BEAD’s diversity, equity and inclusion requirements, “climate change agenda, unlawful price controls, technology preferences, and the wish list of progressive policy goals that have nothing to do with quickly connecting Americans.”

The FCC's November order adopting long-awaited final rules for cellular-vehicle-to-everything technology in the 5.9 GHz band takes effect Feb. 11, said a notice for Friday’s Federal Register. The FCC changed the band's rules in October 2020, reallocating the 5.9 GHz band to sharing between Wi-Fi and C-V2X, with no set-aside for dedicated short-range communications (DSRC), the historical allocation for the spectrum (see 2411210054). The order was adopted 5-0. “Existing licenses for DSRC systems may be renewed as necessary following this effective date but only for a period not to exceed” Dec. 14, 2026, the notice said.

The FCC Wireless Bureau approved on Thursday a request from GeoLinks that it surrender some local multipoint distribution service (LMDS) licenses in return for others from the commission’s inventory. GeoLinks proposes using federal funding to serve some 47,000 locations across Arizona, California and Nevada that now lack high-speed broadband access. The bureau sought comment on the request in May (see 2405170028). “The proposed modifications will enable GeoLinks to rationalize its LMDS spectrum holdings by providing access to more contiguous spectrum, which will allow GeoLinks to improve its network performance and lower its equipment and deployment costs,” the bureau said: “This will benefit rural consumers who would be able to access robust and affordable broadband service more quickly.” The modifications could also “increase the utility of the LMDS band overall, by returning spectrum to the Commission for future reassignment that could create synergies with existing LMDS licenses” in the FCC inventory, the order said.

An order FCC commissioners approved unanimously this month, aligning rules for the 24 GHz band with decisions made at the World Radiocommunication Conference held in 2019, is effective Jan. 13, said a notice for Friday’s Federal Register. Commissioners decided against adopting stricter limits for unwanted out-of-band emissions than were approved at the WRC, which had been a concern of Republican Commissioners Brendan Carr and Nathan Simington (see 2412020061).

The FCC Public Safety Bureau on Wednesday announced the selection of 10 more companies that will serve as cybersecurity label administrators (CLAs) under the agency’s voluntary cyber trust mark program. Last week, it said UL Solutions was picked as the first CLA and will serve as lead administrator (see 2412040038). The CLAs announced Wednesday are: CSA America Testing & Certification, CTIA Certification, Dekra Certification, Intertek Testing Services, the ioXt Alliance, Palindrome Technologies, SGS North America, the Telecommunications Industry Association, TUV Rheinland and TUV SUD America. “The program will allow qualifying consumer smart products that meet critical cybersecurity standards to display a label, including a new U.S. government certification mark, which will help consumers make informed purchasing decisions, easily identify trustworthy products and encourage manufacturers to prioritize higher cybersecurity standards,” the bureau said. The FCC adopted the program unanimously in March (see 2403140034).

Hilliary Acquisition filed for a writ of mandamus in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit seeking the return of $841,128.25 the company made in down payments for 42 licenses when it was the high bidder during the 2020 citizens broadband radio service auction. Hilliary missed a scheduled payment and sought a waiver, but the FCC rejected its request, it told the court. The company said the agency won't make a refund “until such time as Petitioner’s defaulted licenses are re-auctioned and the final default payment can be calculated.” The FCC’s spectrum auction authority lapsed “after Congress failed to agree on the terms of extending that authority, meaning that fulfillment of the conditions the FCC stipulated for repayment of the held funds was impossible,” Hilliary said. The FCC has held the funds since Oct. 16, 2020, the company said. “The FCC’s auction authority has lapsed for over a year and a half and there is no way of knowing when, if ever, it will be reinstated.” Hilliary cited the Administrative Procedure Act, which, it said, requires the D.C. Circuit to “compel agency action unlawfully withheld or unreasonably delayed.” A writ of mandamus is appropriate “where (1) Petitioner has a clear and indisputable right to relief, (2) the government agency has a clear duty to act, and (3) Petitioner has no adequate alternative remedy,” Hilliary said.

The Computer & Communications Industry Association has joined those raising concerns about T-Mobile’s proposed buy of UScellular’s wireless operations, including some of its spectrum. “Additional concentration in an already highly concentrated market would likely harm consumers by exacerbating price increases that are already prevalent among incumbent carriers,” CCIA said in comments posted this week in docket 24-286. Recent T-Mobile price hikes “illustrate the negative outcomes of market consolidation,” the group said: “After agreeing to lock its prices for three years as part of the settlement on the Sprint acquisition, earlier this year T-Mobile notified its users of significant rate increases for a number of legacy calling plans.” Maine ISP Redzone Wireless also raised concerns. Based on power flux density measurements and harmful interference Redzone is experiencing, “T-Mobile is not currently in compliance with the field strength limits that apply to its 2.5 GHz band facilities operating in Maine,” the ISP said. Moreover, service has deteriorated “to the point that many subscribers have been forced to discontinue their Redzone service and seek alternative, often higher-priced, options.”

Commnet Wireless is relinquishing two census block groups -- one each in Idaho and Washington -- for which it had been awarded Rural Digital Opportunity Fund funding, it told the FCC in a docket 19-126 filing posted Tuesday. It said deployment costs in the counties had risen dramatically since it made its bids.

Tech companies filing reply comments at the FCC about an August NPRM on the citizens broadband radio service band highlighted a variety of concerns. Comments were posted last week in docket 17-258. Nokia urged adapting rules that could provide spectrum for drone control and data links, as an alternative to Wi-Fi. The “unpredictable performance of Wi-Fi has prompted the search for better connectivity options such as 4G or 5G cellular connections that offer a controlled interference environment and better latency and throughput,” Nokia said: “Given that the CBRS has been envisioned to be an ‘innovation band’ that can support novel use cases, interest in using the band for drone connectivity is very high.” Ericsson urged relaxing the rules' out-of-band emissions limits, encouraging deployment. The “restrictive and unnecessary OOBE limit at the upper band edge is constricting use of the band and dampening innovation,” Ericsson said. The company noted that fixed satellite service operators have “generally vacated the 3.7-4.0 GHz band,” making the limits no longer necessary. Ericsson said CBRS won’t address the growing need for spectrum to meet growing data demand: “Where the rest of the world uses the 3.5 GHz band for full-power 5G deployments, the 150-MHz-wide CBRS band in the U.S. is limited to small cell deployments with medium power, which is not able to economically support broad deployments that are needed for nationwide coverage.” Qualcomm stressed the importance of allowing higher power levels than are permitted under the current rules. The CBRS band has not “achieved the same level of deployments that C-band operations have reached in a much shorter time,” Qualcomm said. While cable operators have championed the CBRS framework, “they have not followed through with significant deployments” with two of the largest cable providers launching CBRS networks “in just two cities,” the company said. Samsung Electronics America called on the commission to act “now” on its longstanding request for a waiver on a 5G base station radio that works across CBRS and C-band spectrum (see 2309130041). “There is no reason to deny Americans the immediate benefits created by grant of the waiver even as [the FCC] works through other improvements to the CBRS framework,” Samsung said. Among other comments, the Competitive Carriers Association joined the chorus opposing AT&T’s calls for reconfiguring the broader 3 GHz band (see 2412060042). “The NPRM did not make any proposals or seek comment on any questions related to rebanding, relocating CBRS incumbents, or reassignments of the 3.5 GHz band to non-CBRS use,” CCA said. “Any Commission action to advance AT&T’s proposal in this docket, therefore, would be contrary to the Administrative Procedure Act and its related jurisprudence.”