SES Faces LEO Challenges, but Opportunities Exist: Quilty
SES' now-finalized takeover of Intelsat (see 2507170002) is a sign of satellite communication's center of gravity shifting permanently from geostationary orbit (GSO) incumbents to low earth orbit (LEO) disruptors, Quilty Space wrote last week. GSO's declining dominance due to the rise of LEO and stagnating broadcast revenue, among other issues, has been plain to see for years, it said. Quilty cited operator responses such as Telesat moving away from GSO in favor of its LightSpeed LEO system, Eutelsat buying OneWeb, and Viasat acquiring Inmarsat and now teasing direct-to-device services and multi-orbit offerings. SES' near-term priorities are integrating Intelsat, cutting costs and reducing its use of debt, according to Quilty. Beyond that, SES must set a course "that not only fends off emerging LEO competitors but also accelerates growth beyond its current high-single-digit targets."
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Some markets that SES is eyeing, such as D2D, IoT, quantum and cloud-based satcom, "could move the needle later this decade," Quilty said. While SES lacks SpaceX's deep pockets, it has valuable spectrum, orbital rights, landing rights across key markets and a mature global partner network. These position SES to compete in high-value segments like government, mobility and managed services, "where regulatory moats and long procurement cycles tend to favor incumbents." Matched with strategic moves such as deeper alliances with telecom, SES "could carve out a credible, differentiated position in a market increasingly defined by LEO, software-defined networks and multi-orbit flexibility."