Phoenix Center Disputes Findings in Brattle Fiber Study
The Phoenix Center on Monday disputed findings in a Brattle Group study from last year that found fiber deployment through BEAD and other programs could generate about $3.24 trillion "in terms of net present value (NPV) in incremental economic impact.” The study was the “first to show that fiber deployment has significant incremental economic benefits even in the presence of other high-speed broadband technologies,” Brattle said at the time (see 2411200025).
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“With the recent election of Donald Trump to the presidency and his focus on ensuring that taxpayer dollars are spent effectively, the government’s preference for fiber now faces significant uncertainty,” said Phoenix Center Chief Economist George Ford in an analysis. Ford found “methodological problems” in the Brattle Group’s approach, “including a failure to evaluate key assumptions and specifications of the models.”
“Fiber deployment’s effect on outcomes like employment, home prices, and incomes is a challenging problem -- mainly, fiber deployment (the treatment) is not randomly assigned and there is likely a spatial element to the analysis (requiring special techniques),” Ford said. The Brattle Group “adopts a rather simple approach and offers few details.” Ford found “fiber has no meaningful effects on the outcomes.”