Incompas CEO: House and Senate Commerce 'Continuity' Despite Some Leadership Vacancies

Senate Commerce Committee leadership is “pretty clear,” with Chair Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., and ranking member Ted Cruz, R-Texas, switching places when the Republicans return in January with a majority in the chamber, Pickering said. Cruz appeared all but certain to take over as Senate Commerce chairman after current Communications Subcommittee ranking member John Thune, R-S.D., won the GOP caucus’ backing Wednesday to become chamber majority leader in the next Congress (see 2411130039). Some lobbyists were eyeing a potential Thune return as Commerce chairman had he lost the chamber leader's race.

Nelson Mullins’ John Heitmann noted continued uncertainty about whether House Communications Chairman Bob Latta, R-Ohio, or Health Subcommittee Chairman Brett Guthrie, R-Ky., will prevail in their contest to become House Commerce Committee chairman (see 2404110059). Heitmann expects “no change on the Democratic side” of the House Commerce Committee with ranking member Frank Pallone of New Jersey and Communications Subcommittee ranking member Doris Matsui of California remaining in their respective roles (see 2411040049).

Lobbyists we spoke with recently tipped Guthrie as leading in the Commerce gavel race against Latta, mainly because of an edge in fundraising for GOP congressional candidates during the recent election cycle. Both legislators will pitch the House GOP Steering Committee in the coming days now that the caucus has decided to retain House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., lobbyists told us. Spokespeople for Guthrie and Latta voiced confidence that each would prevail.

Cooley’s Robert McDowell sees uncertainty about who will replace Thune as lead Senate Communications Republican (see 2402290057). Former Senate Commerce Chairman Roger Wicker, R-Miss., is unlikely to pursue a return to the Communications chair given that he's all but certain to become Armed Services Committee chairman, McDowell said: Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Neb., is next in seniority, but “she's been a strong proponent [of] carrying water for the Pentagon on spectrum issues.” Fischer earlier this year said she doubted she'd be interested in becoming Communications chair if it meant giving up her roles as lead Republican on the Senate Rules Committee and Armed Services’ Strategic Forces Subcommittee.

'Key Players'

“We know the key players” on Senate and House Commerce, so “there will be continuity” with leaders who “are serious policymakers,” Pickering said. “We will see in this period of change a lot of continuity within the congressional leaders, if that gives anybody any comfort.” Heitmann suggested some newer senators, including Peter Welch, D-Vt., may continue to “take an outsized role on particular issues.” He mentioned the role now-Vice President-elect Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, played in conjunction with Welch in pushing Congress earlier this year to provide ACP with stopgap funding (see 2405090052).

During the lame-duck session, Senate Democrats are “looking at trying to move” again on a spectrum legislative package that would include ACP and rip-and-replace funding, Heitmann said. Capitol Hill’s talks about spectrum legislation have repeatedly stalled over the course of this Congress, with Cantwell repeatedly postponing a markup of her Spectrum and National Security Act (S-4207) amid misgivings from Fischer and other Republicans seen as potential crossover votes for the measure (see 2409170066). S-4207 would restore the FCC’s lapsed spectrum auction authority through Sept. 30, 2029, and provide a vehicle for allocating funding for ACP and rip and replace.

McDowell doubts the lame-duck session will see much happening on telecom issues. Cantwell will likely “attempt” a renewed S-4207 push, but Cruz “is going to want” any legislative package to instead reflect the contours of his 2024 Spectrum Pipeline Act (S-3909), McDowell said. That bill would require NTIA to identify at least 2,500 MHz of midband spectrum the federal government can reallocate within the next five years (see 2403110066). McDowell noted the wireless industry largely backs S-3909 because “having spectrum auction authority doesn't do much good if there's not much of an inventory to auction.”

Morgan Lewis’ Patricia Cave is similarly “not optimistic” that Congress will address the FCC’s spectrum mandate lapse or provide more ACP and rip-and-replace money before year’s end. “Those three issues are the top issues” lawmakers would be likely to address during the lame duck “if it were to happen at all,” but there will “be a better chance” Capitol Hill will take action come next year, she said.