Elections May Bring Significant Senate Commerce Turnover
The Tuesday congressional elections could lead to significant turnover on the Senate Commerce Committee even beyond ranking member Ted Cruz, R-Texas, with four other panel members facing tough or potentially competitive reelection fights. The outcome of Cruz’s reelection bid against Rep. Colin Allred, D-Texas, has the biggest potential to alter the Senate Commerce dynamic because Cruz is poised to become panel chairman if he's reelected and Republicans gain a majority in the upper chamber (see 2411040049). Late polls suggested both of these results are more likely than not. It's less likely there will be substantial turnover on the Senate Judiciary, House Commerce and House Judiciary committees, as only a handful of those panels’ members face competitive contests.
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The other four Senate Commerce members who face competitive races are Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis.; Deb Fischer, R-Neb.; Jon Tester, D-Mont.; and Jacky Rosen, D-Nev. Senate Commerce Chair Maria Cantwell and three other panel members are all but certain of winning reelection: Consumer Protection Subcommittee ranking member Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn.; Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn.; and former panel Chairman Roger Wicker, R-Miss. Blackburn and Klobuchar are also on the Judiciary Committee, while Wicker is Armed Services Committee ranking member. One Senate Commerce member, Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., is retiring.
Election forecasters believe Tester faces long odds of winning a fourth term against Republican businessman Tim Sheehy, who has led the Democratic incumbent in all polls since the beginning of October, apart from a Sept. 30-Oct. 16 Montana State University Billings survey that found them tied at 43%. ABC’s FiveThirtyEight found last week that Sheehy led Tester in recent polls by an average of more than 5 percentage points. Tester has been a vocal advocate on rural connectivity issues, although more recently he raised concerns about advancing spectrum legislation that would impact DOD-controlled frequencies (see 2408220041). Tester was among the handful of Senate Democrats who raised concerns about ex-FCC nominee Gigi Sohn (see 2303030074) before she bowed out last year.
Jeremy Johnson, a political science associate professor at Carroll College in Helena, Montana, noted Tester “generally performs better than other Democratic candidates in rural areas” and his advocacy for rural connectivity is one reason. However, the 2024 race has turned more on national issues than Tester’s previous Senate contests, Johnson said. He noted “tightening of the race” between Tester and Sheehy in some recent polls, but “this is a really hard state to poll.” During his successful 2012 and 2018 reelection bids, Tester “actually performed a few points better” than the polling averages indicated.
Other Contests
Fischer, who is also Senate Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee ranking member, has seen her reelection polling advantage over independent candidate Dan Osborn dwindle in recent weeks after initially appearing to be all but assured of winning a third term. FiveThirtyEight found Monday Fischer's average in recent polls over Osborn stood at 46%-44%. Osborn has led several polls since mid-September, although most came from firms taking campaign-funded surveys. An Oct. 23-26 New York Times/Siena College poll found Osborn leading Fischer 47%-46% among surveyed registered voters but showed the incumbent ahead 48%-46% among likely voters. Fischer during this Congress has been a strong defender of DOD spectrum interests, including opposing allowing 5G use of the 3.1-3.45 GHz band (see 2403210063). Cantwell is courting Fischer (see 2404300052) as a potential backer of her Spectrum and National Security Act (S-4207).
Election forecasters rate Baldwin and Rosen as slightly favored for reelection but still facing competitive contests against their GOP challengers. FiveThirtyEight showed Baldwin’s average lead over Republican real estate developer Eric Hovde narrowed last week to 2 percentage points. She has led in most recent polls, but a Nov. 1-2 InsiderAdvantage survey found Hovde leading 48%-47%. A few GOP-funded surveys have also showed Hovde with a narrow advantage. Baldwin as Senate Appropriations Labor, Health and Human Services, Education and Related Agencies Subcommittee chair has helped repel House Republicans’ attempts to end advance CPB funding (see 2307210065).
Rosen led Afghanistan war veteran Sam Brown by a little over 5 percentage points Monday in FiveThirtyEight’s average. She has led almost all polls since early October, with the one exception of a 47%-46% Brown lead in an Oct. 28-31 Susquehanna Polling & Research survey. Rosen was another of Sohn’s Democratic skeptics and signed onto an unsuccessful May attempt to attach $6 billion for ACP and $3.08 billion for the FCC’s Secure and Trusted Communications Networks Reimbursement Program to the FAA reauthorization law (see 2405070083).
Cruz is also the only Senate Judiciary member who faces a remotely competitive reelection contest this year. Three other panel members besides Blackburn and Klobuchar are certain to win: Josh Hawley, R-Mo.; Mazie Hirono, D-Hawaii; and Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I. Election forecasters rate five House Commerce members as being in tossup or otherwise competitive races: Angie Craig, D-Minn.; John James, R-Mich.; Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R-Iowa; Kim Schrier, D-Wash.; and Darren Soto, D-Fla. Just one House Judiciary member, Kevin Kiley, R-Calif., is in a competitive race.