Home Voice Surge Doesn't Appear to Portend Long-Term Reversal of Cord Cutting

FCC commissioners are monitoring network traffic patterns. Commissioner Mike O'Rielly wonders whether the increase in voice is a substitute for texting now that people have more time, and whether the change in behavior is permanent or temporary. "We'll have to wait and see what it means" for any potential changes in regulatory approach, he told reporters Wednesday.

Commissioner Brendan Carr said he has seen a bigger increase in call volume on the wired than on the wireless side. "It means people are staying put" during the pandemic, he said. "I don't know if this will be a sustained shift in traffic," he added. If so, "we'll have to consider this as part of our policymaking," he said. Commissioner Jessica Rosenworcel said in a written statement, "The agency should take note of what's happening with our nation's networks and collect the kind of data that can inform efforts to build a more resilient communications future."

Voice call traffic was up across several platforms in late March and April, AT&T reported, including double-digit percentage increases in residential voice, wireless voice and Wi-Fi voice minutes compared to similar pre-COVID-19 usage periods.

In mid-March, Verizon's average daily voice call usage was nearly twice that of an average Mother's Day, the company reported. “For years we’ve seen a steady decline in the amount of time people spend talking to one another, especially on wireless devices,” said Chief Technology Officer Kyle Malady. “The move to staying at home has reignited people’s hunger to stay connected, voice-to-voice.” By mid-May, Verizon's call volume had dropped closer to normal.

Voice usage was up 50% in the initial week of sheltering in place, Alianza Vice President-Marketing Kevin Mitchell told us. The increase in the VoIP service has leveled off, but average weekly call volume was still up compared with pre-March 16, he said. Call duration is longer, too, he said. "It's not just people calling to order takeout," he said. "There's a lot of people reaching out to family and rediscovering the power of conversation." Mitchell blogged about the trend.

When NTCA surveyed its members on usage several weeks ago and again in recent days, it found "they're definitely seeing an increase in voice and broadband, but the networks remain pretty robust," said Senior Vice President-Industry Affairs and Business Development Mike Romano. He said as people moved to working from home, the need to take conference calls there rose. When customers reported delays in accessing conference call bridges, carriers advised them to schedule calls 15 minutes after the hour, Romano said.

Temporary Surge

Don't count on this becoming a long-term trend, stakeholders said. "It's too soon to know how much of this increase in telecommuting will be permanent," said telecom consultant Genny Morelli. If shutdowns are prolonged or businesses encourage continued work from home, business customers using VoIP and private branch exchange (PBX) phone systems should allow employees to take their business phone numbers home, Mitchell said.

Subscribership to home phone lines has dropped over the past 12 years, an IDC spokesperson emailed. According to USTelecom metrics, 8% of U.S. households are projected to subscribe to circuit-switch landline service in 2020, down from 60% in 2008. Even in rural areas, consumers are increasingly dropping regulated plain old telephone service, Romano said. Some may switch to an unregulated over-the-top voice service or VoIP from a cable or third-party broadband provider, he said. Mitchell expects the drop in POTS to continue.

Not everyone supports the move from POTS, especially when working from home (see 1910110008). The Utility Reform Network has "concerns about the inadequacy of VoIP as compared to copper," a spokesperson emailed. "During power shutoffs that PG&E has warned will go on for 10 years, many customers with 'landlines' were shocked to discover they no longer had reliable copper service but rather VoIP, which went out along with the power." TURN advocates for enhanced battery backup.

In northern California's Bay Area, Sonic had a huge increase in orders for its gigabit broadband and unlimited voice bundle now that "a lot of folks are home," said CEO Dane Jasper. "March was the busiest month for new services for nearly a year." He guessed most orders weren't added mainly or only for voice, "but we saw an increase in voice usage."

"The biggest thing is the rise in video conferencing" platforms such as Zoom, Jasper said. The company had an increase in outbound broadband data usage, with a peak increase of 44%, he said.

Voice traffic over mobile networks increased at a higher rate than for data, CTIA data show.

Editor's note: This is one in an occasional series about how the novel coronavirus is affecting telecom and consumers. It includes four articles so far on 911: 2004270046; 2004130032; and 2003180033, with the most recent published last week and now here in front of our pay wall (along with some other virus coverage). Two more reports examined how sheltering place is affecting residential broadband networks: 2004060038 and 2003190042. Other coverage was on keeping customers and technicians safe: 2004100038.