Blackburn Senate Bid Fuels Speculation on House Communications Subcommittee's Future

Blackburn launched her campaign in a video in which she called herself a “hard-core, card-carrying Tennessee conservative” and noted left-leaning critics' characterization of her as “a wingnut or a knuckle-dragging conservative. And you know what? I say 'that’s all right, bring it on.'” She criticized Senate Republicans' track record during this Congress, saying many of her would-be colleagues “act like Democrats or worse.” Blackburn didn't highlight any of her telecom, tech or IP policy experience in the video. Her announcement followed soon after Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam (R) said he wouldn't enter the Senate race.

Lance, Latta and Shimkus would be strong candidates for the Communications chairmanship, though which of them has the upper hand depends on whom you talk to. Latta “went very hard” at his bid for the seat in January against Blackburn, who ended up winning in part because she's an ally of President Donald Trump (see 1701060001), one Republican lobbyist said. Latta probably will “make an aggressive play” for the gavel when Blackburn leaves, and he could be the leading contender since “people are happy with the job he's doing” at House Digital Commerce, the GOP lobbyist said. Latta is “more focused on broadband expansion opportunities as opposed to fighting over divisive issues,” a Democratic telecom lobbyist said. Latta's "focus is on the priorities of the Digital Commerce and Consumer Protection Subcommittee along with his efforts on the other subcommittees he serves on," including House Communications, a spokesman said.

Latta and Shimkus would both “work well” with Communications ranking member Mike Doyle, D-Pa., who appears likely to remain in that role next Congress and would have the edge to become chairman if Democrats gain control of the House in the 2018 election, a Democratic telecom lobbyist said. Shimkus also could make a play for Communications given his past interest in telecom issues, though “he's been a little less active on them in this Congress,” the Democratic lobbyist said. A Republican lobbyist downplayed Shimkus' chances for the chairmanship, saying “he probably could have gotten it” at the start of this Congress “if he'd wanted it,” particularly because of his unsuccessful bid against Walden for House Commerce leader (see 1612010074). Shimkus “is excited about the work he’s doing [as chairman of] the Environment Subcommittee to improve drinking water infrastructure, redevelop brownfields and manage our nation’s spent nuclear fuel and defense waste,” a spokesman said.

Lance appears likely to “make an aggressive play” to become Communications chairman and he would be able to make a strong case for his bid because of his role as vice chairman, a Republican lobbyist said. Lance could be an attractive candidate if Walden and Republican leaders want to look to more junior lawmakers to take over vacant chairmanships, but if seniority wins out, that could be a problem for Lance, a GOP lobbyist said. “I don't know if he has the seniority” to take over House Communications, a telecom lobbyist said. Lance's office didn't comment.

Official candidacies to replace Blackburn at House Communications are likely far off, since it's unlikely she will vacate the chairmanship this Congress, lobbyists and officials said. Retention of the chairmanship would help Blackburn's fundraising, lobbyists said. It's possible Blackburn could turn over some of her chairmanship duties to Lance while still retaining the official title, a lobbyist said. Blackburn's office didn't comment.

Views range widely on the extent to which the Communications' workload or priorities could change because of Blackburn's Senate bid. Now-House Commerce Committee Chairman Greg Walden, R-Ore., was National Republican Congressional Committee chairman during the 2012 and 2014 election cycles while he was still House Communications chairman “and he was pretty busy then conducting oversight of the FCC,” said Mobile Future Chief Public Policy Advisor Robert McDowell. “Just because [Blackburn] is running for Senate doesn't mean she's going to devote any less attention to the subcommittee. She's going to continue to be a very busy chairman.”

Blackburn “can multitask with the best of them,” a Republican lobbyist said. “There's no reason to think she would want to slow down [House Communications'] agenda” because of her Senate campaign. Lobbyists suggested Walden still has enough pull in setting House Communications' agenda that Blackburn wouldn't be able to shift its policy priorities even if she wanted to.

Blackburn might not have much incentive to shift those priorities because the issues Communications tackles are important but “don't come out on top” over broader national issues that could come to dominate the 2018 cycle, including Trump's performance and the fate of Obamacare, a communications sector lobbyist said. Others said a shift in priorities is possible, with one Democratic lobbyist saying Blackburn could seek to “double down” on controversial issues like net neutrality or push for movement on a more partisan version of FCC reauthorization legislation, particularly given the Senate Commerce Committee isn't likely to begin work on its own bill until next year (see 1709060048 and 1709220055).