Elections Likely to Reshuffle Cast of Hill Telecom Players

Senate Commerce members still seen as vulnerable are Sens. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H., Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and more recently Roy Blunt, R-Mo. Polling suggests Johnson, who chairs the Homeland Security Committee and led an investigation into the FCC’s net neutrality rulemaking, is most at risk of those four. Former Sen. Russ Feingold, his Democratic opponent, is up by close to five points, according to the latest RealClearPolitics polling average, although Feingold was up by only one point among likely voters in Wednesday’s Marquette University Law School poll.

The other races are also tight. The latest polling average in New Hampshire shows Ayotte, a stickler for USF equities, up 2.5 points over Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan. Rubio, a late entry following his unsuccessful presidential bid and a prominent voice on spectrum, is up by a recent average of 3.2 points, and a Quinnipiac poll released Thursday showed Rubio up six points over Rep. Patrick Murphy, D-Fla. Blunt, a fierce net neutrality critic and often ally to broadcasters, seems to be entering a dead heat with Democratic foe Jason Kander, Missouri’s secretary of state. The latest polling average shows Blunt up by 1.5 points. Senate Commerce incumbents were divided on telecom’s importance to voters (see 1608170032).

Less is at stake on House Commerce’s Communications Subcommittee. Only one member is sure to leave next Congress: Rep. Renee Ellmers, R-N.C., who lost her primary contest. She joined in the GOP push for FCC transparency this Congress, sponsoring a process overhaul measure. All other subcommittee members are seeking re-election and likely to win those seats without any problems. Reps. John Shimkus and Adam Kinzinger, both Illinois Republicans, are unopposed. In the House, one high-profile retirement is Rep. Ander Crenshaw, R-Fla.​, who chairs the Appropriations Financial Services Subcommittee. He oversees funding for the FCC and FTC and led the charge for policy riders curbing net neutrality and other agency actions.

Races of Interest

Other election results likely will have implications for telecom and media policy. Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, was formerly seen as vulnerable in his contest against Ted Strickland, but Portman is now the favored candidate, up by an average of more than 15 points. Portman chairs the Senate Homeland Security Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations and partnered with ranking member Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., in her scrutiny of pay-TV companies. McCaskill told us in September she hopes for another PSI hearing on the topics in the lame-duck session (see 1609070045). Portman is also active on regulatory overhaul generally.

Two telecom-focused House lawmakers facing tougher re-election races are Reps. Darrell Issa, R-Calif., a former CTA chairman who now chairs the Judiciary IP Subcommittee, and Kevin Yoder, R-Kan., who sponsors the Kelsey Smith Act and is active on email privacy. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump recently endorsed Issa in the 49th District race, changed to a tossup by The Cook Political Report last month. Issa's Democratic opponent Doug Applegate touts endorsements from Communications Workers of America and the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers. A Global Strategies poll last month showed Yoder with a three-point advantage in Kansas’ 3rd District. Yoder’s Kelsey Smith Act is expected to stall this Congress (see 1610060047), creating questions about who would take up the bill in the House next year if he loses this week.

Another highly watched race is between two California Democrats -- Rep. Mike Honda and Ro Khanna, a recipient of much Silicon Valley money and attention. Their fight, also seen as close and a rematch from a 2014 battle that Honda won, is complicated by litigation over allegedly stolen data from Honda’s campaign (see 1610110003). California election rules allow candidates of the same party to compete against one another in the general election if they received the highest shares of votes in the primary contest, as Honda and Khanna did.

Other tight House races include two with Democratic challengers especially versed in telecom. Josh Gottheimer, former senior FCC official under Chairman Julius Genachowski and also formerly at Microsoft, is edging toward a possible victory against Rep. Scott Garrett, R-N.J., in New Jersey’s 5th District. He's especially close to the Clintons, previously working for President Bill Clinton as a speechwriter, and his donors include Genachowski. Zephyr Teachout, a Fordham University law professor, has shown herself to be a surprisingly strong Democratic challenger to Republican John Faso in the fight for New York’s 19th District seat to replace retiring Rep. Chris Gibson, a Republican. In 2014, she unsuccessfully vied for governor of New York, with net neutrality advocate Tim Wu her choice for lieutenant governor on that ticket.

Telecom Priorities

Teachout is among candidates trumpeting telecom this cycle. “The administration should stop the AT&T/Time Warner merger,” she tweeted Oct. 24. “The last thing we need right now is more concentrated power!” She aligned herself with opposition from Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and attacked AT&T lobbying power. She tweeted about how she loves CWA in response to a supportive CWA message. Antitrust was a focus for her gubernatorial campaign, during which she and Wu sent a comment to the New York Public Service Commission asking it to block the ultimately unsuccessful Comcast/TWC deal. They opposed approval with conditions. Teachout pledges on her website to ensure “access to universal competitive broadband and cell phone service to provide local business owners with the necessary tools they need to run successful businesses and provide for their families,” calling current services “woefully inadequate.”

California Attorney General Kamala Harris, expected to easily win the open Senate seat in California, has a deep telecom record. She worked with the FCC and FTC on cramming, as in one 2014 settlement. She led a June letter of AGs to the FCC addressing concerns with its set-top box NPRM, and her office weighed in with a comment on the ISP privacy rulemaking a month later. Her office issued a release last week on how to reduce cyberattacks, directed at both consumers and IoT manufacturers and developers. Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., widely expected to win Maryland’s open Senate seat, cited broadband infrastructure investment goals during a debate last month, and his campaign pledged to bring Disclose Act pressure on the FCC to the Senate (see 1610270062). Blunt faced questions about his son, a telecom industry official, managing his re-election campaign (see 1611020061). Ayotte and Hassan traded attacks on cybersecurity at their recent debate (see 1611030040). Gottheimer touts “some of the fastest broadband in America right here in our district” and said he wants to “maximize these assets and get our economy humming again,” noting a desire for tax overhaul and R&D investment.

Tom Wakely, a Democrat challenging GOP Rep. Lamar Smith for the noncompetitive 21st-District seat in Texas, touts net neutrality across five paragraphs: “There’s no silver bullet for net neutrality,” Wakely’s campaign website said. “The FCC order plays a role by forbidding ISPs from meddling with traffic in certain ways. But transparency is also key: ISPs must be open about how traffic is managed over their networks in order for both users and the FCC to know when there’s a problem. Local governments can also play a crucial role by supporting competitive municipal and community networks.” He said Smith disagrees and “was the author of the ill-conceived SOPA [Stop Online Piracy Act] bill in Congress and it is only a matter of time before Congressman Smith tries once again to get it passed.” John Dale, a Democrat running for the House in Indiana against a GOP incumbent, also touted his backing for net neutrality this cycle and last.

Telecom minimally factors into the campaigning of even established Hill incumbents active on the policy. Senate Commerce Committee Chairman John Thune, R-S.D., and House Communications Subcommittee Chairman Greg Walden, R-Ore., did not emphasize such topics on their campaign websites despite frequent legislative focus. Walden includes a biography line about working to “create new high tech jobs by expanding broadband to rural areas” and a similar mention in some campaign ads but doesn’t include this among prominent campaign issues. The campaign website for House Communications Subcommittee ranking member Anna Eshoo, D-Calif., says Eshoo “has had a hand in shaping communications policy for the 21st Century” and in “that capacity she has been Congress’ leading voice to maintain Net Neutrality and a free, open and accessible Internet.” She cites achievements on broadband deployment, 911 service and the E-rate program. These lawmakers face easy re-elections.