WiMAX Adoption Depends on Shape of Mobile Internet, Intel Official Says
The goal for WiMAX deployment is to hit “30/30” -- $30 to add WiMAX capability into mobile devices, and $30 average monthly price for each connection, an Intel executive told the WCA conference Wed. With the approval of the mobile WiMAX standard by the IEEE earlier this year and certification starting at the end of the year, the next phase is the broad distribution of WiMAX-enabled devices, Vp-Mobility Group Scott Richardson said. Intel also unveiled a chip that handles both fixed and mobile WiMAX, Rosedale 2, following its fixed-only chip Rosedale.
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WiMAX work is moving at a “record setting pace,” Richardson said. About 175 WiMAX trials are running, and another 35 networks are complete, he said. Spending on WiMAX R&D has reached $1 billion, and the trend for WiMAX usage seems to be echoing DSL’s historic growth, Richardson said. The WiMAX Forum has its interoperability profiles established and is now working on business issues. The main downside, he said, is that most WiMAX opportunities are outside the U.S., with Korea and Japan serving as “bellwether markets.”
“Around us there is a swirl of activity defining what the mobile Internet is,” with no shortage of content and applications “taking care of the demand side,” Richardson said. YouTube now gets 50 million page hits daily, and at 90 million accounts, PayPal is more widely used than American Express, he said. The open question is how Intel, device makers and carriers can profit from these applications and content, Richardson said.
Intel will undergo a “profound transition” in the next 5 years to focus on components for broadband-enabled mobile devices, drifting away from its decade-long PC-based broadband focus. Carriers will have to move to “something beyond the plumbing” of access to keep pace, he said. The industry needs “hooks” like Web 2.0 applications to get a good return on the expense of providing bandwidth-heavy service: “We're not out of time, but we need to move fast,” he said.
The tandem development for Intel is decreasing chip size, which Richardson said would soon reach 45 nanometers from its current 65, creating “an era where you can put the entire computer on a chip.” Moore’s Law is reaching the point where notebook capabilities are going to shrink into “ultramobile PCs” in the next 3-5 years, he said. Richardson predicted performance and more efficient power usage 10 times greater than now.
Besides WiMAX on the fast track, Wi-Fi is undergoing much-overlooked innovation, Richardson said. Most smart antennas will be delivered in low-cost products based on the multiple-input multiple-output system, he said, and Intel will make a big push next year on the new 802.11n standard that can handle high-definition content.
Asked for a timetable on Intel’s integrated Wi-Fi/WiMAX chip (CD March 9 p5), Richardson said the company will start delivering PC cards with the chips this year, but pegged 2008 for broad distribution: “We are busy as bees… commercializing this technology.” He told a skeptic of the $30 per month subscription target for WiMAX that the company would focus on citywide “metrozones” and create roaming structures across markets, which would make connections more valuable. Richardson also noted that $30 was the average, and that varying service levels would mean higher or lower prices. Battery life for dual-radio chips depends on several variables, but Intel expects WiMAX chips to follow 3G in lower drainage, while Wi-Fi moves toward more complex, power-hungry capabilities, he said. More worrisome than power consumption is radio interference, he said.