CEA Downgrades 2005 DTV Shipments Forecast 25%
CEA has downgraded its 2005 projections on DTV product shipments to 15 million units from 20 million because the earlier forecast overstated “the full-year effect” of the FCC’s DTV tuner mandate and its potential to invigorate DTV sales, the assn. said Fri.
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CEA also pointed some of the blame toward broadcasters and cable, saying the more-optimistic projections were based on “what proved to be false assumptions that the cable and broadcast industries would support specific actions necessary to achieve aggressive sales growth in 2005,” when they didn’t. “Quite frankly, we were wrong,” said CEA Pres. Gary Shapiro: “Our ambitious DTV sales projection for the year was based on a belief that both the broadcast and cable industries would embrace actions that would greatly accelerate our nation’s transition to digital television.”
Although broadcast and cable “have made strides toward increasing programming and making infrastructure investments, both industries continue to throw up roadblocks that slow the transition,” Shapiro said. For example, broadcasters are opposing the establishment of a date certain for the analog shut-off, and cable “refuses to support and promote” CableCARD-ready DTV products, he said: “We see both of these as critical and necessary steps in order to reach 20 million unit sales this year and help ensure rapid consumer adoption of DTV.” Efforts to reach NAB and NCTA officials late Fri. for reaction to Shapiro’s remarks were unsuccessful.
Shapiro said broadcasters also were attempting to block CEA’s petition before the FCC to revise the DTV mandate compliance deadline on 25-36” sets. Comments are due today (Mon.) in the Commission’s rulemaking (05-24) on the CEA petition to eliminate the July 1, 2005, deadline by which 50% of such sets must include a DTV tuner, and advancing to March 1, 2006, the date by which 100% of such sets must be DTV-equipped. As of late Fri., only Harris Corp. had weighed in with a comment in the rulemaking, and gave rubber-stamp approval of the CEA petition.
Notwithstanding the downgraded DTV forecast, Shapiro said DTV sales projections for 2005 and beyond “are extraordinarily strong.” He said CE “celebrates the fact that consumers will flock to DTV in greater numbers than ever before. Our industry will sell more DTV products in this single year than we've sold in several past years combined. In fact, our revision still puts us ahead of where we thought we'd be just a year ago. In 2004, we forecast total 2005 sales would reach a mere 8.3 million sets.”