MILITARY, INDUSTRY NOT IN LOCKSTEP ON 3G SPECTRUM ISSUES

Unlike DoD findings so far, 2 separate industry analyses on interference from 3G operations to satellite receivers showed sharing was possible, Satellite Control Station Working Group Chmn. Robert Kubik said. Different findings on potential for sharing are result of DoD and industry analyses using different technical starting points, he said. Kubik and others stressed analyses were based on worst-case scenarios and that refinement of assumptions is continuing and would be part of further discussions. Conclusion of industry participants so far is that “existing satellite operations should not be adversely impacted through their life span,” he said.

Industry analyses point to interference problems for wireless systems and operations from satellite uplink earth stations to 3G systems. Area where interference might be problem could be as much as 75 km, Kubik said. He said problems arise when earth stations, of which there are 10-15 in U.S., are located in densely populated areas. One way to mitigate interference would be to relocate earth stations to more remote areas, he said, which would be short-term fix. Longer term approach may be to relocate operations to another frequency band, he said. Standard ITU band pairing is 2025-2110 MHz uplink with 2200-2290 MHz downlink, Kubik said. DoD uses 1761-1842 MHz, he said. Harmonization of U.S. systems to those used internationally would be one advantage of that scenario, he said. That option “needs some more evaluation,” Kubik said. “There are some benefits.”

Industry-govt. working groups have been meeting to evaluate 3G impact of 2 bands that federal govt. is examining for potentially offering advanced wireless services. FCC has purview over Multichannel, Multipoint Distribution Service (MMDS) and Instructional TV Fixed Service (ITFS) users in 2500-2690 MHz, and NTIA is examining 1755-1850 MHz band now occupied mostly by DoD. NTIA and FCC released separate interim reports in Nov. with preliminary assessments of band sharing and segmentation options. More detailed studies, including ramifications of relocation costs, are to be included in final reports next month.

In Q&A, DoD Joint Spectrum Center Senior Engineer Mike Williams said from audience that Defense Dept. wasn’t in agreement with all of industry’s conclusions. He declined to elaborate after meeting what areas were causing most concern. In initial conclusions on impact of 3G systems on certain DoD equipment released last fall, report cited interference problems. In full band sharing for satellite operations receivers, “interference from IMT-2000 base stations is much more severe than from the mobile stations, but both represent potentially significant interference,” report said. Report said “analysis is ongoing” to examine factors that could reduce predicted interference levels. But report also said loss of access “to 1805-1850 MHz in the near term would render some DoD satellites useless… and may preclude launch and deployment of others.”

Separately, working group on fixed and tactical radio relay has found that sharing between fixed point-to-point and IMT-2000 isn’t feasible, Motorola’s Sharkey said in presenting group’s findings. Relocation of point-to-point is feasible, group found. For tactical radio relay, geographic sharing is feasible, particularly because heaviest DoD demand is in rural areas and strong 3G demand is in urban regions. On Air Combat Training System, Working Group Chmn. Michael Lynch said interference by 3G operations to and from that system was “unacceptable.”

Working group on 2500-2690 MHz found co-channel sharing between incumbent MMDS and ITFS systems and 3G operations wasn’t feasible, said Nokia’s Cecily Cohen, who is co-chairing group. FCC preliminary report released last fall also found that band sharing would be challenging, in part because both MMDS and 3G systems were virtually ubiquitous. Issues that would be useful as part of further consideration by FCC include possibility of “flexible use” rules, she said. Latter scenario would focus on impact of allowing both fixed and mobile uses in band. That would allow current licensees opportunity to provide or lease fixed or mobile operations, she said. Washington attorney Paul Sinderbrand, who also co-chairs group, said that still would present some of same challenges as co-channel sharing because existing stations were licensed in relatively close proximity, creating interference issues.

Meanwhile, citing keen interest in 3G spectrum, Senate Budget Committee bulletin this week said Congressional Budget Office (CBO) had “dramatically” raised its estimate of spectrum auction receipts by $10 billion over previous baseline. CBO increased baseline 55% to $28 billion over 2002-2007. It attributed change to “market enthusiasm” for 3G and cited $17 billion generated by FCC’s C-block auction last month. New price assumptions also reflect hefty price tags that emerged in auctions for 3G licenses in Europe. Among caveats CBO attached to revised projections is encumbrances of spectrum under consideration for 3G in U.S., “suggesting that prices may be lower than those being paid for the unencumbered spectrum auctioned in 2000.”

“The prices being paid for spectrum licenses have skyrocketed over the last year, leading CBO to revise its valuations upward, as well,” CBO report said. Current estimate of $28 billion doesn’t include $17 billion from auction that ended Jan. 26. CBO expects auction receipts to peak in fiscal 2003 and 2004, rather than in 2002, which was projected peak year in Balanced Budget Act of 1997. CBO is projecting revenue from spectrum auctions of $4 billion in 2002, $10 billion in 2003, $10 billion in 2004, and $1 billion each year from 2005 to 2007. While projections run through 2011, no proceeds are listed from 2008 onward. Senate Budget Committee bulletin referred to volatility of past auction estimates, including skeptical reception of original $25 billion projected for 1998-2011. “CBO’s latest baseline indicates that current conditions are likely to make the original cost estimate appear, if anything, conservative,” bulletin said.