Some 17% of cord-cutter households said they will return to pay TV when live sports return, reported Roku Tuesday. Thirty-one percent said they are likely to subscribe to a live sports streaming service, and 52% of traditional and cord-shaver households that cut back on pay-TV service say they are likely to reduce their package if televised live sports on traditional pay TV doesn’t return. The Macro Consulting survey commissioned by Roku canvassed 7,000 adult U.S. viewers in March and another 2,000 in May amid COVID-19. Nearly a third of U.S. TV households don’t have cable, satellite or telco TV; 25% were cord shavers. Forty-five percent of cord shavers intended to sever service in the next six months. Cutting home entertainment expenses was the leading reason for cord-cutter households shifting to full-time streaming, with Roku users who cut the cord saying they saved about $75 monthly. Nearly half of all U.S. TV households say they are watching more free, ad-supported TV. Four in 10 cord-cutter households said access to free trials and extended free trials to premium subscription services influenced their decision to cut traditional pay-TV service.

The Copyright Royalty Board correctly denied Independent Producers Group challenges to distributions of MVPD royalty fees and in revoking the presumption of validity for and the imposition of discovery sanctions on IPG. That's according to U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit order Tuesday (docket 18-1337) by Judges Thomas Griffith, Laurence Silberman and Cornelia Pillard, written by Pillard. IPG outside counsel didn't comment. The judges expressed skepticism in April oral argument of math IPG used to assert CRB was arbitrary and capricious (see 2004220015).

MoffettNathanson is “very optimistic about future industry growth” in ad-supported VOD but sees “too many long-term risks” at Roku to "enthusiastically recommend" the stock, said senior analyst Michael Nathanson Monday. Roku has built a “strong gatekeeper position” among streaming media devices, he said. That’s creating a “near-term opportunity” for Roku to “extract significant value” from over-the-top companies “seeking their shelf space to grow,” he said. “Roku’s current negotiating position is that streaming services need to be on their platform to be relevant.” But some new services like Peacock are shunning Roku, “a small company in a marketplace packed with the world’s largest tech and media players,” he said. They may “not be willing” to grant Roku the “oxygen” it needs to “flourish over time,” he said.

Live sports will be the first big genre to return to TV, as players and team owners have common economic interests and billions of dollars at stake if a season doesn't get played, Needham analyst Laura Martin wrote investors Monday: Seven pro sports leagues are expected to air live games by August, and live sports TV ratings will likely hit record levels in the second half of 2020. She said the biggest beneficiaries likely will be ESPN, Fox and CBS, with subscription VOD streaming services like Netflix and Disney+ most hurt, as they benefited from live sports being dark.

DOJ approval of a deal that would allow Liberty Media to increase its share in iHeartMedia last week “threatens news stations, music outlets, and media workers across the country,” said Open Markets Institute's Center for Journalism and Liberty. The government nod allows Liberty to increase stake in iHeartMedia, currently at 5%, by up to 50%, confirmed an iHeart spokesperson Friday. “Liberty Media already controls too much of the media market, and this merger means it can expand its empire and further concentrate power over local media markets nationwide,” said Center for Journalism and Liberty Director Jody Brannon. Brannon said the U.S. should institute a merger moratorium during the pandemic crisis. Liberty and DOJ didn’t comment.

Aug. 1, cable operators and direct broadcast satellite providers must send a variety of notifications to broadcasters electronically instead of via postal mail, the FCC Media Bureau said in a docket 19-165 notice in Thursday's Daily Digest. Those notifications include deletion or repositioning of broadcast signals, changes to principal headends and intent to retransmit a “significantly viewed” out-of-market stations, it said. Commissioners approved the notification rules change in January (see 2001300001).

Netflix did 35% better than its April 21 projections when it delivered 10.1 million net subscriber additions globally in Q2. After Q1 Netflix subscriber net adds as COVID-19 lockdowns hit soared to 15.77 million, Netflix said then it expects viewing to decline and membership increases to slow down as “home confinement ends” (see 2004210059). “We live in uncertain times with restrictions on what we can do socially and many people are turning to entertainment for relaxation, connection, comfort and stimulation,” said a shareholder letter after regular U.S. markets closed Thursday. The first half had “significant pull-forward of our underlying adoption leading to huge growth,” it said. “We expect less growth for the second half of 2020.” It’s forecasting 2.5 million net subscriber adds globally for Q3, compared with 6.8 million in Q3 a year earlier. “Instead of worrying” about all the new competition in the streaming space, “we continue to stick to our strategy of trying to improve our service and content every quarter faster than our peers,” it said. The stock fell 9.9% to $475.40 in after-hours trading. The company also promoted two executives (see personals section, this issue.)

The U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia erred when it dismissed adult films producer Strike 3's motion seeking from Comcast the name of a broadband subscriber allegedly pirating its films, the Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit ruled Tuesday. In an opinion (in Pacer, docket 18-7188) by Judges Harry Edwards, Patricia Millett and Neomi Rao and penned by Rao, the D.C. Circuit said the lower court gave too much weight to the allegedly “aberrantly salacious nature” of Strike 3’s films and the danger Strike 3's method of identifying infringers using IP addresses and geolocation could result in false identifications. It reversed the lower court's order and remanded. Comcast didn't comment Wednesday.

Cinedigm will partner with former Codeblack Films executive Quincy Newell and his TwentyOne14 Media to launch an “urban multi-cultural entertainment and lifestyle” streaming network in Q1 2021, they said Tuesday. The unnamed network will be available in the U.S. for linear and ad-supported VOD platforms on connected TVs, digital set-tops, media-streaming devices and web-based and online OTT services, they said.

SiriusXM agreed to buy the Stitcher podcast business from Scripps for $265 million cash, said the satellite company Monday. It “will advance and deepen SiriusXM's position in podcasting, the fastest-growing sector in the audio entertainment ecosystem,” it said. SiriusXM agreed to make up to $60 million more in “additional contingent payments” to Scripps if Stitcher achieves unspecified “financial metrics” this year and next, it said. The deal will better position SiriusXM “to advance the podcast ad market,” it said: Q3 closing hinges on required regulatory approvals and other conditions..