Former Rep. Phil English, R-Pa., now co-chairman of Arent Fox's lobbying team, says the incentives are in the wrong place for House Democrats to ratify the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. English was featured on an Arent Fox Sept. 16 webinar on "working through the chaos" along with Grant Aldonas, a former top trade lawyer on the Senate Finance Committee, former Sen. Byron Dorgan and two trade lawyers. English said if the economy worsens, it hurts Trump, not House Democrats, and that the NAFTA rewrite faces "a great deal of opposition" from elements of the Democratic coalition. He said it may never get ratified if it doesn't get done in the next two months.
U.S. Chamber of Commerce CEO Tom Donohue said he doesn't believe that the Trump administration will declare victory if Chinese buyers return to buying pork, soybeans and corn. "I don't think it will be an agreement of any type until it's a matter of substance," he said.
The European Union said the level of U.S. retaliation authorized by the World Trade Organization for the EU's subsidies to Airbus is likely to be released the week of Sept. 30, and that they regret that the 19-year Airbus-Boeing dispute is coming to tariffs.
Although the Republican House members cheering for passage of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement outnumbered Democrats more than 3-to-1, both Republicans and Democrats who spoke at the Farmers for Free Trade Rally Sept. 12 said ratification is within reach. Former House Ways and Means Committee chairman Kevin Brady, R-Texas, said, "I feel like we have moved to the 20-yard line." Rep. Henry Cuellar, a fellow Texan who is a Democrat, agreed. "We will get this done," he predicted. "We are very close."
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer sent a written counter-proposal to the House working group the afternoon of Sept. 11, a House Ways & Means spokeswoman said. She declined to say how long and extensive it was.
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, told reporters that U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer expects to finish negotiations with the House Democrats' working group on the NAFTA rewrite in the next 20 days. Grassley, speaking Sept. 10, said he spoke with Lighthizer Sept. 6. "I hope that's not too optimistic, but he's doing it, and so I can accept his word on it, I guess," Grassley said.
The U.S. trade representative and India's Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal have been talking on the phone, with the goal of trading a return to the Generalized System of Preferences benefits program for better agricultural access, according to two sources following the trade talks. The original industry complaints about market access filed with USTR, requesting that India be expelled from GSP privileges were from the medical device industry and from the dairy industry. A lawyer following the trade talks said that "there's talk -- and this is still a very contentious issue" -- that the pricing controls on medical devices, such as stents, would be changed in India.
Rep. Ron Kind, co-chairman of the New Democrats' trade task force, said U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has done a good job on outreach, and sounding sympathetic to Democrats' complaints about enforceability, labor and other issues they want changed in the NAFTA rewrite. But Kind, who was speaking to reporters on a conference call from the Midwest on Sept. 4, said that "for some reason there's been a reluctance on sharing paper, putting words down" that would change the trade deal to satisfy these requests.
Almost half of companies that responded to the U.S.-China Business Council's annual survey on the business climate in China said they have lost sales in China since the trade war began. The most common reason is because of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports to China, according to these 100 multinational firms based in the U.S. Another third said they lost sales because of U.S. tariffs.
The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative will publish a notice in the Federal Register Aug. 30 that says that List 4 products under the Section 301 action will face an additional 15 percent tariff, not 10 percent, as earlier announced. President Donald Trump had tweeted this change four days ago (see 1908230059). The change in the rate does not affect the dates the goods will face the tariff. One group of products, nearly 3,800 8-digit tariff lines, will be taxed starting Sept. 1; consumer electronics largely will wait until Dec. 15.